Abstract
Experience at Crichton Royal in dealing with dementia over a thirty year period has been used to develop two models of bed requirements for dementia sufferers. The first based on results from the periods 1957 to 1959 and 1974 to 1976 and the second on experience in the years 1974–75 and 1984–85. The variables considered were demographic change, admission of a constant proportion of the at risk group and changes in individual patient survival between groups of patients admitted.
Projections based on the earlier model suggested that the SHAPE provision of 10 beds per 1000 of the over 64 population would be insufficient to maintain established standards of care. The later model, however, finds SHAPE numbers appropriate.
The reasons for the change of view — Inaccuracy in estimate of increasing male survival and significant under-estimates of population growth — Nullify each other.
The conclusion is that SHAPE is a useful model provided the demographic changes and patient survival change are carefully monitored.
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