The current study replicates and refines earlier findings concerning the role of risk factors as predictors of reincarceration following prison substance abuse treatment. Findings confirm that risk factors predict recidivism 3 years postprison and that positive treatment effects are more likely to be found among the higher risk participants. However, care must be taken in adopting this conclusion for policy as it does not hold when the powerful effects of aftercare are introduced. Specifically, impressive reductions in recidivism were also found for the lower risk offenders who completed after-care. Therefore, caution is urged in assuming that low-risk individuals would not benefit from continued treatment.
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