Can Social Media Help Incumbents Subvert Democracy?

Abstract

Can leaders’ use of social media contribute to democratic backsliding? Extant research concludes that political leaders use social media mostly as a broadcasting tool and to engage in limited substantive dialogue. In this article, we propose a supply-side theory of how social media may contribute to the processes associated with democratic backsliding. We argue that incumbents use Twitter (X), among other purposes, to dynamically discover the political costs of eroding democracy and consolidating power. Social media provides important information from three key actors: (1) institutional gatekeepers, (2) the opposition, and (3) the leader's base. The reactions from these actors to proposed policies determine the costs of pursuing them further. We use advanced natural language processing approaches and data from Donald Trump's personal Twitter account to test our argument. We find that his Twitter behavior appeared responsive to reactions from key Republican leaders and to signals of support from his citizen base, suggesting that Twitter may have served as one input in shaping political strategies.