Prior police decision-making research is limited by (1) its emphasis on individual and organizational predictors and (2) cross-sectional designs, which fail to account for the time-varying aspects of police activities and the factors explaining them. Using group-based trajectory modeling, this study tested the ability of social disorganization theory to explain arrest activity at the Census block group level in Dallas, Texas. Social disorganization variables helped predict certain arrest trajectories, but not all of them. Specifically, socio-economic status was significant in low and medium arrest trajectory groups. An interaction between racial heterogeneity and family disruption was also significant in the medium arrest trajectory group. Theoretical implications are discussed.
AkaikeH (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control19(6): 716–723.
2.
AndersonJE (2003) Public Policymaking: An Introduction. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.
3.
BaltagiBH (2006) Estimating an economic model of crime using panel data from North Carolina. Journal of Applied Econometrics21(4): 543–547.
4.
BozdoganH (1987) Model selection and Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC): the general theory and its analytical extensions. Psychometrika52: 345–370.
5.
BrameRPaternosterRPiqueroAR (2012) Thoughts on the analysis of group-based developmental trajectories in criminology. Justice Quarterly29(4): 469–490.
6.
BursikRJ (1984) Urban dynamics and ecological studies of delinquency. Social Forces63(2): 393.
7.
BursikRJ (1988) Social disorganization and theories of crime and delinquency: problems and prospects. Criminology26(4): 519–552.
8.
ChaineySRatcliffeJ (2005) GIS and Crime Mapping. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley Publishing.
9.
ChamlinMBMyerAJ (2009) Disentangling the crime-arrest relationship: the influence of social context. Journal of Quantitative Criminology25: 371–389.
10.
DeryolRWilcoxPLoganM, et al. (2016) Crime places in context: an illustration of the multilevel nature of hot spot development. Journal of Quantitative Criminology32(2): 305–325.
FischerCS (1982) To Dwell Among Friends: Personal Networks in Town and City. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
13.
GibbsCMalvinJI (2008) Structural disadvantage and the concentration of environmental hazard in school areas: a research note. Crime, Law, and Social Change49: 315–328.
14.
GorrWLeeYJ (2015) Early warning system for temporary hot spots. Journal of Quantitative Criminology31: 25–47.
15.
HigginsGEJenningsWGTewksburyR, et al. (2009) Exploring the link between low self-control and violent victimization trajectories in adolescents. Criminal Justice and Behavior36(10): 1070–1084.
16.
HippJR (2007) Income inequality, race, and place: does the distribution of race and class within neighborhoods affect crime rates?Criminology45(3): 665–697.
17.
HippJR (2010a) Resident perceptions of crime and disorder: how much is “bias”, and how much is social environment differences?∗Criminology48(2): 475–508.
18.
HippJR (2010b) A dynamic view of neighborhoods: the reciprocal relationship between crime and neighborhood structural characteristics. Social Problems57(2): 205–230. doi:10.1525/sp.2010.57.2.205.
19.
JungTWickramaKAS (2008) An introduction to latent class growth analysis and growth mixture modeling. Social and Personality Psychology Compass2(1): 302–317.
20.
KakarS (2006) Understanding the causes of disproportionate minority contact: Results of focus group discussions. Journal of Criminal Justice34(4): 369–381.
21.
KaneRJ (2002) The social ecology of police misconduct∗. Criminology40: 867–896.
22.
KlingerDA (1997) Negotiating order in patrol work: an ecological theory of police response to deviance∗. Criminology35: 277–306.
23.
KornhauserRR (1978) Social Sources of Delinquency: An Appraisal of Analytic Models. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
24.
KhruakhamSHooverLT (2012) The impact of situational and contextual factors on police arrest decisions: an analysis from the New York police department. Law Enforcement Executive Forum12(1): 122–135.
25.
KunnujiMON (2016) Population density and armed robbery in Nigeria: an analysis of variation across states. African Journal of Criminology and Justice Studies9(1): 62–73.
26.
LautenschlagerROmoriM (2018) Racial threat, social (dis)organization, and the ecology of police: towards a macro-level understanding of police use-of-force in communities of color. Justice Quarterly35: 1–22.
27.
LeeJZhangYHooverLT (2013) Police response to domestic violence: multilevel factors of arrest decision. Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management36(1): 157–174.
28.
LeiberMBishopDChamlinMB (2011) Juvenile justice decision-making before and after the implementation of the disproportionate minority contact (DMC) mandate. Justice Quarterly28(3): 460–492.
29.
LoYMendellNRubinD (2001) Testing the number of components in a normal mixture. Biometrika88: 767–778.
30.
MartinAKaminskiRJ (2021) On the relationship between social disorganization and police coercive action(s) in the New York City Police Department. Police Practice and Research22(1): 1095–1114.
31.
McCarthyMPorterLTownsleyM, et al. (2018) Influence of community characteristics on serious police use of force events in an Australian policing jurisdiction: a test of minority threat, social disorganization, and ecological contamination theories. Policing and Society7(4): 1–18.
32.
MenardS (1987) Short-term trends in crime and delinquency: a comparison of UCR, NCS, and self-report data. Justice Quarterly, 4(3), 455–474.
NaginDS (2005) Group-Based Modeling of Development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
35.
NaginDS (2010) Group-based trajectory modeling: an overview. In: PiqueroARWeisburdD (eds). Handbook of Quantitative Criminology, 53–67.
36.
NaginDSLandKC (1993) Age, criminal careers, and population heterogeneity: specification and estimation of a nonparametric, mixed Poisson model. Criminology31(3): 327–362.
37.
NaginDSOdgersCL (2010) Group-based trajectory modeling (nearly) two decades later. Journal of Quantitative Criminology26(4), 445–453.
38.
NaginDSPiqueroAR (2010) Using the group-based trajectory model to study crime over the life course. Journal of Criminal Justice Education21(2): 105–116.
39.
NaginDSTremblayRE (2005) What has been learned from group-based trajectory modeling? examples from physical aggression and other problem behaviors. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science602: 82–117.
40.
National Research Council (2004) Fairness and Effectiveness in Policing: The Evidence. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
41.
PaolineEATerrillW (2005) Women police officers and the use of coercion. Women and Criminal Justice15: 97–119.
42.
ParkREBurgessEW (1921) Introduction to the Science of Sociology. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
43.
ParkREBurgessEWMcKenzieRD (1967) The City: Suggestions for Investigation of Human Behavior in the Urban Environment. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. (Original work published 1925).
44.
PhilipsSWGayadeenSMKimDY, et al. (2015) A partial test of the ecological theory: examining vigour at the block group level. The Police Journal88(1): 6–19.
45.
RatcliffeJH (2010) The spatial dependency of crime increase dispersion. Security Journal23(1): 18–36.
46.
ReissAJTonryM (1986) Communities and Crime. New York, NY: Springer.
47.
RiceMHarrisG (2006) What population and what question?Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice48(1): 95–101.
48.
RichardsTNJenningsWGTomsichEA, et al. (2013) Longitudinal examination of offending and specialization among a sample of Massachusetts domestic violence offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence28: 643–663.
RoseDRClearTR (1998) Incarceration, social capital, and crime: Implications for social disorganization theory. Criminology36(3): 441–480.
51.
RosenfeldRDeckerSH (1999) Are arrest statistics a valid measure of illicit drug use? the relationship between criminal justice and public health indicators of cocaine, heroin, and marijuana use. Justice Quarterly16(3): 685–699.
52.
SampsonRJ (1986) Crime in cities: The effect of formal and informal social control. In: SampsonRJ (ed). Crime and Justice. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 8, 271–311.
53.
SampsonRJGrovesWB (1989) Community structure and crime: testing social-disorganization theory. American Journal of Sociology94: 774–802.
54.
SampsonRJRaudenbushSWEarlsF (1998) Neighborhood Collective Efficacy -- Does it Help Reduce Violence?Rockville, MD: National Institute of Justice.
55.
SchwarzGE (1978) Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics6(2): 461–464.
56.
ScloveSL (1987) Application of model-selection criteria to some problems in multivariate analysis. Psychometrika52(3): 333–343.
57.
ScottTLWellfordCLumC, et al. (2019) Variability of crime clearance among police agencies. Police Quarterly22(1), 82–111.
58.
ShawCRMcKayHD (1969) Juvenile Delinquency in Urban Areas. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. (Original work published in 1942).
59.
ShawCRZorbaughHMcKayHD, et al. (1929) Delinquency Areas. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
60.
SmithDA (1986) The neighborhood context of police behavior. Crime and justice8: 313–341.
61.
SouthSJDeaneGD (1993) Race and residential mobility: individual determinants and structural constraints. Social Forces72(1): 147.
62.
SunIYPayneBKWuY (2008) The impact of situational factors, officer characteristics, and neighborhood context on police behavior: a multilevel analysis. Journal of Criminal Justice36: 22–32.
63.
TabachnickBGFidellLS (2007) Using Multivariate Statistics, 6th edition. New York, NY: Pearson.
64.
TaylorBGMumfordEASteinND (2015) Effectiveness of “Shifting boundaries” teen dating violence prevention program for subgroups of middle school students. Journal of Adolescent Health56(2): S20–S26.
65.
TerrillWReisigMD (2003) Neighborhood context and police use of force. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency40: 291–321.
66.
U.S. Census Bureau (1994) Geographic Areas Reference Manual. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce.
67.
U.S. Census Bureau (2014) TIGER/LINE® Files Technical Documentation. Washington, DC: Department of Commerce.
68.
WeisburdD (2008) Place-based Policing (Ideas in American Policing). Washington, DC: Police Foundation.
69.
WeisburdDBushwaySLumC, et al. (2004) Trajectories of crime at place: a longitudinal study of street segments in the city of Seattle. Criminology, 42(2), 283–322.
70.
WeisburdDGroffERYangS (2012) The Criminology of Place: Street Segments and Our Understanding of Crime Problem. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
71.
WeisburdDGroffERYangS-M (2014) Understanding and controlling hot spots of crime: the importance of formal and informal social controls. Prevention Science15(1): 31–43.
72.
WeisburdDMorrisNAGroffER (2009) Hot spots of juvenile crime: a longitudinal study of arrest incidents at street segments in Seattle, Washington. Journal of Quantitative Criminology25(4): 443–467.
73.
WeisburdDTelepCW (2014) Hot spot policing: what we know and what we need to know. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice30(2): 200–220.
74.
WerlingRL (2007) Disproportionate minority contact with the police: a service utilization analysis (Doctoral dissertation). Retrieved from Sociological Abstracts. (Order No. AAI3250668).
75.
WheelerAPWordenREMcLeanSJ (2016) Replicating group-based trajectory models of crime at micro-places in Albany, NY. Journal of Quantitative Criminology32: 589–612.
76.
WirthL (1938) Urbanism as a way of life. American Journal of Sociology44: 1–24.
77.
WordenR (1996) The causes of police brutality: Theory and evidence on police use of force. In GellerWATochH (eds.) Police violence: Understanding and controlling police abuse of force. Washington, DC: Police Executive Research Forum, 31–60.
78.
WorrallJL (2019) Investigative resources and crime clearances: a group-based trajectory approach. Criminal Justice Policy Review. in press.
