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Abstract

The external shocks emphasised by the standard Optimum Currency Area approach (i.e. shocks to exports) have surpris ingly little influence on employment and unemployment in most member countries of the European Union (EU) whether or not exchange rates are fixed. Short-run exchange-rate variability (but not the level of the exchange rate) seems to have a negative impact on employment.

It is often claimed that a high degree of international labour mobility is a condition for a monetary union. However, what matters for the Optimum Currency Area approach is the difference between inter-regional and inter-national labour mobil ity and not the level of the latter. Recent data show that international labour mobility in Europe is of the same order of magnitude as inter-regional labour mobility within member countries and that, the latter seems to be influenced by the housing market. EMU is thus unlikely to significantly worsen the problems that arise through the low mobility of labour in Europe.

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National Institute Economic Review : A Reconsideration of the Optimum Currency Area Approach: The Role of External Shocks and Labour Mobility

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