Over the years a large number of empirical studies have investigated the effects of monetary factors on various forms
of private expenditure. This article surveys the evidence which has accumulated with a view to throwing some light
on the basic issue of how, and how strongly, monetary policies influence real economic activity in this country. The
evidence is varied and often contradictory and only tentative conclusions can be drawn.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Artis, M., 'Monetary policy', in F. T. Blackaby (ed) 'British Economic Policy, 1960-74', Cambridge University Press (forthcoming).
2.
Dow, J.C.R., 'The Management of the British Economy', Cambridge University Press, 1964.
3.
Fisher, G. and Shephard, D., 'Effects of Monetary Policy on the United States Economy: A Survey of Econometric Evidence', OECD Economic Outlook, Occasional Studies, December 1972.
4.
Anderson, W.H.L., 'Business fixed investment: a marriage of fact and fancy', in Ferber (1967).
5.
Bischoff, C.W., 'Hypothesis testing and the demand for capital goods', Review ofEconomics and Statistics, 51, 1969 .
6.
Bischoff, C.W., 'The effect of alternative lag distributions', in Fromm (1971).
7.
Boatwright, B.D. and Eaton, J.R., 'The estimation of investment functions for UK manufacturing industry', Economica, November 1972.
8.
Coen, R.M., 'The effect of cash flow on the speed of adjustment', in Fromm (1971).
9.
De Leeuw, F., 'The demand for capital goods by manufacturers: a study in quarterly time series', Econometrica, 30, 1962.
10.
Eisner, R., 'Interview and other survey techniques and the study of investment', in NBER, 'Studies in income and wealth', Vol. 19, 'Problems of capital formation', Princeton University Press, 1957.
11.
Eisner, R. and Nadiri, M.I., 'Investment behaviour and the neo-classical theory', Review ofEconomics and Statistics, 50, 1968 .
12.
Eisner, R. and Strotz, R.H., 'Determinants of business investment', in 'Commission on money and credit, impacts of monetary policy', Prentice-Hall, 1963.
13.
Evans, M.K., 'A study of industry investment decisions', Review ofEconomics and Statistics, 49, 1967 .
14.
Evans, M.K., 'Macroeconomic activity: theory, forecasting, and control', Harper and Row, 1969.
15.
Feldstein, M.S. and Flemming, J.S., 'Tax policy, corporate saving and investment behaviour inBritain', Review of Economic Studies, 38, 1971.
16.
Ferber, R., (ed) 'The determinants of investment behaviour', NBER, 1967.
17.
Fromm, L., (ed) 'Tax incentives and capital spending', Brookings Institution, 1971 .
18.
Gehrels, F. and Wiggins, S., 'Interest rates and manufacturers' fixed investments', AmericanEconomic Review, 47, 1957.
19.
Griliches, Z. and Wallace, N., 'The determinants of investment revisited', InternationalEconomic Review, 6, 1965.
20.
Grunfeld, Y., 'The determinants of corporate investment', in Harberger, A. C., (ed), 'The demand for durable goods', University of Chicago Press, 1960.
21.
Hines, A.G. and Catephores, G., 'Investment in UK manufacturing industry', in 'The econometric study of the United Kingdom' edited by Hilton, K., and Heathfield, D. F., Macmillan , 1970.
22.
Jorgenson, D.W., 'Anticipations and investment behaviour', in Duesenberry, J. S., Fromm, G., Klein, L. R., and Kuh, E. , (eds), 'The Brookings Quarterly Model of the United States ', North-Holland, 1965.
23.
Jorgenson, D.W., 'Econometric studies of investment behaviour: a survey', Journal of Economic Literature, 9, 1971.
24.
Klein, L.R., 'Studies in investment behaviour', in 'Conference on business cycles', NBER, 1951.
25.
Klein, L.R., 'Issues in econometric studies of investment behaviour', Journal of Economic Literature, XII, 1974.
26.
Klein, L.R., Ball, R.J., Hazelwood, A., and Vandome, P., 'An econometric model of the United Kingdom', BasilBlackwell, 1961.
27.
Klein, L.R. and Taubman, P., 'Estimating effects within a complete econometric model', in Fromm (1971).
28.
Koyck, L.M., 'Distributed lags and investment analysis', North-Holland , 1954.
29.
Lund, P.J., 'Investment: the study of an economic aggregate', Oliver and Boyd, 1971.
30.
Lund, P.J. and Holden, K., 'An econometric study of private sector gross fixed capital formation in the United Kingdom, 1923-38', Oxford Economic Papers, 10, 1968.
31.
Nobay, A.R., 'Forecasting manufacturing investment-some preliminary results', National Institute Economic Review, May 1970.
32.
Oxford Economists Research Group, 'Summary of replies to questions on effects of interest rates', Oxford Economic Papers, 1, 1938.
33.
Resek, R.W., 'Investment by manufacturing firms: a quarterly time series analysis of industry data', Review ofEconomics and Statistics, 48, 1966.
34.
White, W.H., 'Interest inelasticity of investment demand-the case from business attitude surveys re-examined', AmericanEconomic Review, 46, 1956.
35.
White, W.H., 'The rate of interest, the marginal efficiency of capital, and investment programming', EconomicJournal, 68, 1958.
36.
Allard, R.J., 'An economic analysis of the effects of regulating hire purchase', Government Economic Service Occasional Paper No. 9, HMSO, 1974.
37.
Ando, A. and Modigliani, F., 'The life cycle hypothesis of saving: aggregate implications and tests', AmericanEconomic Review, 53, 1963.
38.
Arena, J.J., 'Postwar stock market changes and consumer spending', Review ofEconomics and Statistics, 47, 1965 .
39.
Ball, R.J. and Drake, P.S., 'The impact of credit control on consumer spending in theUnited Kingdom', Review of Economic Studies, 30, 1963.
40.
Bank Of England, 'The personal savings ratio ', Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, March 1975.
41.
Bhatia, K.B., 'Capital gains and the aggregate consumption function', AmericanEconomic Review, 62, 1972.
42.
Evans, M.K., 'The importance of wealth in the consumption function', Journal of Political Economy, 75, 1967.
43.
Ferber, R., 'Research on household behaviour', AmericanEconomic Review, 52, 1962.
44.
Ferber, R., 'Consumer economics, a survey', Journal of Economic Literature , 11, 1973.
45.
Garganas, N.C., 'An analysis of consumer credit and its effect on purchases of consumer durables' , in Renton, G. A. (ed), ' Modelling the economy', Heinemann, 1972 .
46.
Griliches, Z., Maddala, G.S., Lucas, R. and Wallace, N., 'Notes on estimated quarterly aggregate consumption functions', Econometrica, 30, 1962.
47.
Hamburger, M.J., 'Interest rates and the demand for consumer durable goods', AmericanEconomic Review, 57, 1967.
48.
Hilton, K. and Crossfield, D.H. , 'Short-run consumption functions for the UK, 1955-56', in Hilton, K. and Heathfield, D. F. (eds), 'The econometric study of the United Kingdom', Macmillan, 1970.
49.
Klein, L.R. and Goldberger, A.S. , 'An econometric model of the United States, 1929-55', North-Holland, 1955.
50.
Landsberger, M., 'The life cycle hypothesis-a reinterpretation and empirical test', AmericanEconomic Review, 60, 1970.
Modigliani, F., 'The life cycle hypothesis of saving and inter-country differences in the saving ratio', in 'Induction, growth and trade', Essays in honour of Sir Roy Harrod, Clarendon Press, 1970 .
53.
Modigliani, F., 'Monetary policy and consumption', in 'Consumer spending and monetary policy: the linkages', Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1971.
54.
Stone, R., 'Private savings in Britain, past, present and future', Manchester School, 32, 1964.
55.
Surrey, M.J.C., 'Personal income and consumers' expenditure', in Hilton, K. and Heathfield, D. F. (eds), 'The econometric study of the United Kingdom', Macmillan, 1970.
56.
Tinbergen, J., 'Statistical testing of business cycle theories', League of Nations, Geneva, 1939.
57.
Zellner, A., 'The short-run consumption function', Econometrica, 25, 1957.
58.
Zellner, A., Huang, D.S., and Chan, L.C., 'Further analysis of the short-run consumption function with emphasis on the role of liquid assets', Econometrica, 33, 1965.
59.
Burrows, P., 'Explanatory and forecasting models of inventory investment inBritain', Applied Economics, 3, 1971.
60.
Cohen, R.M., 'Integrating the real and financial via the links of financial flows', Journal of Finance, 23, 1968.
61.
Darling, P.G. and Lovell, M.C., 'Factors influencing investment in inventories', in Duesenberry, J. S., Fromm, G., Klein, L. R., and Kuh, E. (eds), 'The Brookings Quarterly Model of the United States ', North-Holland, 1965.
62.
Eisner, R. and Strotz, R.H., 'Determinants of business investment' in 'Commission on money and credit, impacts of monetary policy', Prentice-Hall, 1963.
63.
Lovell, M.C., 'Determinants of inventory investment', in NBER 'Studies in income and wealth', vol 28, 'Models of income determination', Princeton University Press, 1964.
64.
Trivedi, P.K., 'Inventory behaviour in UK manufacturing, 1956-67', Review of Economic Studies, 37, 1970.
65.
Artis, M.J., Kieruan, E., and Whitley, J.D., 'The effects of building society behaviour on housing investment', in Parkin, M. (ed), 'Essays in modern economics', Longman, 1973.
66.
Duffy, M., 'A model of UK private investment in dwellings', London Graduate School of Business Studies Discussion Paper, No 18, 1970.
67.
Fisher, R.M. and Siegman, C.J., 'Patterns of housing experience during periods of credit restraint in industrialised countries', Journal of Finance, 27, 1972.
68.
Grebler, L. and Maizel, S.J., 'Determinants of residential construction: a review of present knowledge' , in Suits, D. B., et al, ' Impacts of monetary policy', Research studies prepared for the commission on money and credit, Prentice Hall, 1963.
69.
Guttentag, J.M., 'The short cycle in residential construction', AmericanEconomic Review, 51, 1961.
70.
O'Herlihy, C. St. J. and Spencer, J.E., 'Building Societies' behaviour', National Institute Economic Review, August 1972.
71.
Vipond, M.J., 'Fluctuations in private housebuilding in the UK, 1950-66', Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 16, 1969.
72.
Whitehead, 'The UK housing market, an econometric model', Saxon House, 1974.