Errors in National Institute Forecasts of Personal Incomes,Inflation and Employment,1965-75

Abstract

This article examines the accuracy of the National Institute's forecasts of incomes, inflation and employment from 1965 to 1975. It is found that in recent years the Institute has tended to underestimate inflation, although less seriously for the consumer price index than the other current price variables studied. The accuracy of the forecasts has generally increased in relative terms, although it has deteriorated in absolute terms. The forecasting performance in 1974 was particularly poor but there has been a distinct improvement in 1975 and 1976.