Primary Products: Prospects To 1985

Abstract

Prospects for supplies and prices are the subject of this article. No major supply shortages are foreseen for the next ten years. Dependence on OPEC oil will be reduced by production from the North Sea and elsewhere. Other commodity cartels are unlikely to have lasting success. Oil prices are forecast in two alternatives for 1985, representing the two extreme values of the possible wide range. Prices of food and industrial materials are projected on the basis of the lower oil price scenario and on assumptions concerning world economic growth, trade and inflation. They are expected to rise in the coming ten years faster than prices of manufactured goods.