Abstract
GDP growth is expected to slow from 2 per cent in 2016 to 1.7 per cent in 2017 and 1.9 per cent in 2018.
We forecast consumer price inflation to average 3.3 per cent in 2017 and 2.9 per cent in 2018.
We expect the MPC to ‘look through’ this temporary period of above target inflation.
The new fiscal mandate is for the government to reduce cyclically adjusted public sector net borrowing to below 2 per cent of GDP by 2020–21. We expect the government to meet this target with relative ease.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.