Abstract
The economy will grow 2 per cent in 2016 before slowing to 1.4 per cent in 2017: with the triggering of Article 50 there are downside risks to next year's outlook. Consumer price inflation will accelerate, peaking at around 4 per cent in the second half of 2017, and this will impact on real disposable income The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to look through this near-term inflation and hold Bank Rate at ¼ per cent until 2019. Sterling is expected to remain at around $1.22 and €1.11 this year and next.
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