Abstract
Our baseline forecast is for global growth of 3.5 per cent in 2012. Growth will accelerate to 4 per cent in 2013, representing a downward revision of about 1/2 percentage point in each year compared to our last forecast. This assumes a delayed but ultimately successful resolution of the Euro Area crisis. Nevertheless, we expect a mild recession in the Euro Area as a whole, as well as in the UK. We forecast growth of about 2 per cent in the US this year, while China and India, although slowing, will continue to drive world growth.
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