A statistical method was presented for determining the probability that cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) among residents of the United States and Puerto Rico who participated in the 1976–77 swine flu vaccine programme were due to the vaccine. It was determined that the vaccine (A/New Jersey) was the most likely cause of GBS if the onset was within five weeks after vaccination. From the sixth to the tenth week after vaccination, the association was unlikely. After the tenth week, the association between the vaccine and GBS was negative.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
BreslowN. E.DayN. E. (1980) Statistical Methods in Cancer Research. Volume I—The Analysis of Case Control Studies. Lyon, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC Scientific Publications No. 32).
2.
CornfieldJ. (1956) A statistical problem arising from retrospective studies. In: Proceedings of 3rd Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, NeymanJ. (Ed), Berkeley, University of California Press, pp. 135–48.
3.
CutlerS. J.EdererF. (1958) Maximum utilization of the life table method in analyzing survival. J. Chronic Diseases8, pp. 699–712.
4.
FleissJ. L. (1979) Confidence intervals for the odds ratio in case-control studies: the state of the art. J. Chronic Diseases32, pp. 69–77.
5.
GreenstreetR. L. (1981) Relationship between the incidence of Guillain-Barre syndrome and participation in the swine influenza virus vaccine program (1976–1977). Washington, D. C., United States Dept. of Justice report.
6.
GreenstreetR. L. (1983) Adjustment of rates of Guillain-Barre syndrome among recipients of the swine flu vaccine, 1976–77. J. Royal Soc. Med.76, p. 620.
7.
KennedyR. H. (1978) Guillain-Barre syndrome: A 42-year epidemiologic and clinical study. Mayo Clinic Proc.53, pp. 93–9.
8.
KurlandL. T.MolgaardC. A. (1981) The patient record in epidemiology. Scientific American No.4, 245, pp. 54–63.
9.
LangmuirA. D. (1979) Guillain-Barre syndrome: the swine influenza virus vaccine incident in the United States of America, 1976–77: preliminary communication. J. Royal Soc. Med.72, pp. 660–69.
10.
MarksJ. S.HalpinT. J. (1980) Guillain-Barre syndrome in recipients of A/New Jersey influenza vaccine. J. Amer. Med. Assoc. No.24, 243, pp. 2490–4.
11.
MiettinenO. (1976) Estimability and estimation in case-referent studies. Amer. J. Epidemiol.103, pp. 226–35.
12.
SchonbergerL. B. (1979) Guillain-Barre syndrome following vaccination in the national influenza immunization program, United States, 1976–1977. Amer. J. Epidemiol.110, pp. 105–123.
