The Time to Rob: Variations in Time of Number of Commercial Robberies

Abstract

This article reports a study on daily, weekly, and seasonal variations of the number of commercial robberies perpetrated in the Netherlands during the period 1988 to 1994. Results show that daily and weekly peaks depend on the kind of premises targeted. These peaks are explained by robbers' expectations of the amount of money available at the robbery target. The number of robberies in winter is distinctly higher than in summer, explained by the increased number of dark hours during the day. The explanation of changes in the number of robberies during the day, the week, and the year is straightforward: availability of suitable targets and adequate guardianship. The study shows that there is no reason to seek more complicated and less elegant explanations for daily, weekly, and seasonal variations, like cash flow in commercial targets, the cost of living during the winter, bad weather, or changes in the unemployment rate.