The Seasonality of Violent Crime: The Case of Robbery and Homicide in Israel

Abstract

The relationship between season of the year and criminal behavior is a classical topic in criminological research. However, much of the research in this field is atheoretical and the findings are inconsistent and contradictory. The present study investigated the seasonality of homicide and robbery in Israel from 1977 to 1985. The authors' analysis was informed by the routine activity approach, which views crime as a function of three main elements: motivated offenders, suitable targets, and absence of guardians. Based on this approach and on the differences between homicide and robbery (with regard to motivation, victim-offender relationships, and planning), the authors hypothesized that robbery would show a seasonal trend and would peak during the winter (November through March) due to the increase in the cost of living and the facilitating environmental conditions during these months. In contrast, they expected homicide to be most prevalent in August (when social interaction is at its highest level), and that it would not follow a distinct seasonal pattern because victim availability and suitability, as well as the variety of motives involved in homicide, make this crime much less dependent on climatic conditions. The data were analyzed by three statistical methods: a stochastic model (SARIMA), a X - 11 seasonal adjustment, and a rank order of the three highest months. The results generally supported the hypotheses indicating the utility of the routine activity approach as a useful framework for analyzing the seasonality of crime. The methodological implications of using different definitions and measures of seasonality are discussed, and suggestions are put forward for further study in this field.