Aboriginal and Nonaboriginal Recidivism in Western Australia: A Failure Rate Analysis

Abstract

Failure rate analysis (Stollmack and Harris, 1974; Maltz and McCleary, 1977) is used to study the recidivism of all prisoners released for the first time between July 1975 and June 1984 from Western Australian prisons (n = 11,262). Recidivism is defined as reincarceration and excludes convictions involving other penal sanctions. Prisoners serving sentences in police lock-ups, remanded in custody, or sentenced to imprisonment prior to July 1975 were also excluded. Estimates of the ultimate probability of recidivism for this population and various subgroups describe recidivism for race, sex, age, offense, and other variables, confirming a classic failure profile with strong distinctions by these factors, particularly race. Overall, the probability of recidivism for aboriginal male prisoners was 80% (SE 2%) and for nonaboriginal males was 48% (SE 2%) and the median times to fail for these groups were 11 months and 18 months, respectively. Female aboriginal recidivism was 75% (SE 6%) and female nonaboriginal recidivism was 29% (SE 7%) and the median times to fail were 16 months and 19 months, respectively. Higher recidivism was observed for male, and young prisoners. Other variables considered include major offense (at first receival), actual time served, sentence type, prison (at exit), and marital, educational, and employment status. Lower recidivism was observed for nonaboriginal prisoners incarcerated longer and for more serious offenses. Participation in work release and financial assistance on release was also associated with lower recidivism. The time to fail was consistently much shorter for aboriginals across all factors than for nonaboriginal prisoners. A general downward trend in recidivism was found between the years 1975 through 1976 and 1978 through 1979 although it was less marked for aboriginal prisoners and did not continue beyond the period 1980-1981. The contribution of aboriginal recidivism to high rates of imprisonment in Western Australia is discussed in relation to the utility of imprisonment. The limitations and merits of failure rate analysis in recidivism studies are considered.

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Australian Law Reform Commission . 1986. The Recognition of Aboriginal Customary Laws, Vol. 1, 2. AGPS Canberra.

Barton, R. R. and R. W. Turnbull . 1979a. “Evaluation of Recidivism Data: Use of Failure Rate Regression Models.” Evaluation Quarterly, 3:629-642.

Barton, R. R. and R. W. Turnbull . 1979b. “A Survey of Covariance Models for Censored Life Data with Application to Recidivism Analysis.” Communication in Statistics; Theory and Method, 8:723-750.

Binns, C. W. and L. E. Hewett . 1984. “Aboriginal Health in Western Australia.” Paper No. 10, Public Health Department, W. A.

Burgoyne, P. H. 1979. “Recidivism Among Rapists”; “Homicide and Recidivism”; “Recidivism Among Robbers.” Report to the A.C.R.C., Canberra.

Challinger, D. 1975. “Recidivist Youth.” Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology 8(2).

Cohen, S. 1985. Visions of Social Control. London: Polity.

Dax et al. 1980. “A Comparison Between Recidivists from Problem Families and Recidivists Currently in the Tasmanian Prison System.” Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology 13(2).

Duckworth, A. , C. Foley-Jones , P. Lowe , and M. Maller . 1982. “Imprisonment of Aborigines in North Western Australia.” Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology 15:26-46.

10.

Flanagan, T. J. 1982. “Risk and the Timing of Recidivism in Three Cohorts of Prison Releases” Criminal Justice Review 7(2): 34-45.

11.

Greenberg, D. 1977. “The Correctional Effects of Correction: A Survey of Evaluations.” In Corrections and Punishment, edited by D. Greenberg . Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.

12.

Griswold, B. D. 1978. “A Comparison of Recidivism Measures.” Journal of Criminal Justice 6:247-252.

13.

Harris, C. M. and S. D. Moitra . 1978. “Improved Statistical Techniques for the Measurement of Recidivism.” Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 15:194-213.

14.

Hoffman, B. and J. Beck . 1984. “Burnout: Age at Release from Recidivism.” Journal of Criminal Justice 12:617-623.

15.

Homel, R. 1980. “Penalties and the Drink Driver.” N.S.W. Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Report No. 1.

16.

Hylton, J. 1982. “Rhetoric and Reality: A Critical Appraisal of a Community Correctional Program.” Crime & Delinquency 26:341-373.

17.

Johnson, N. L. and S. Kotz . 1970. Continuous Univariate Distributions. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

18.

Kalbfleisch, J. and R. L. Prentice . 1980. The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data. New York: John Wiley.

19.

Kaplan, E. L. and P. Meier . 1958. “Non-Parametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 53:457-481.

20.

Kitchener, H. , A. Schmidt , and D. Glaser . 1977. “How Persistent is Post-Prison Success,” Federal Probation 41:9-15.

21.

Koller and Gosden . 1980. “Recidivists: Their Past and Families Compared with First Time Only Prisoners.” Australia and New Zealand Journal of Criminology 13(2).

22.

Lipton, D. , R. Martinson , and J. Wilks . 1975. The Effectiveness of Correctional Treatment: A Survey of Treatment Evaluation Studies. New York: Praeger.

23.

Loftus, A. P. 1974. “Predicting Recidivism using the Glueck Social Prediction Scale with Male First Offenders.” Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology 7(1).

24.

Maltz, M. D. 1984. Recidivism. London: Academic Press.

25.

Maltz, M. D. and R. McCleary . 1977. “The Mathematics of Behavioural Change.” Evaluation Quarterly 1:421-438.

26.

Martin, M. and L. Newby . 1984. “Aborigines in Summary Courts in, Western Australia, A Regional Study.” In Aborigines and Criminal Justice, edited by B. Swanton . Canberra: AIC proceedings.

27.

Martinson, R. 1976. Rehabilitation, Recidivism and Research. New Jersey: NCCD.

28.

NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics . 1979. “Two Studies of Recidivism.” Research Report No. 6.

29.

Palmer, T. 1983. “The Effectiveness Issue Today an Overview.” Federal Probation 46(2):3-10.

30.

Peterson, N. , ed. 1976. Tribes and Boundaries in Australia. Canberra: Aust. Inst. of Aboriginal Studies.

31.

Philpotts, G. J. and L. B. Lancuke . 1979. “Previous Convictions, Sentences and Reconvictions.” Report No. 53. London: Home Office, HMSO.

32.

Reynolds, H. 1981. The Other Side of the Frontier. New York: Penguin Ringwood.

33.

Scull, A. 1984. Decarceration: Community Treatment and the Deviant. 2nd Ed. Cambridge: Polity Press.

34.

Stannage, T. , ed. 1981. A New History of Western Australia. Nedlands: U.W.A.

35.

Stollmack, S. and C. M. Harris 1974. “Failure Rate Analysis Applied to Recidivism Data.” Operations Research 22:1192-1205.

36.

Schumacher, M. 1974. “Predicting Subsequent Conviction for Individual Male Prison Inmates.” Australia and New Zealand Journal of Criminology 8(2).

37.

Tarling, R. 1986. “Statistical Applications in Criminology.” Statistician 35:369-388.

38.

Walker, N. 1983. “Side-Effects of Incarceration.” British Journal of Criminology, 23:61-71.