Abstract
A simple procedure using current crime statistics and recent trends is presented for extrapolating the threat violent crime will present over the lifetimes of children born in American cities. Ex pressions are obtained for the mean and variance of the number of nonlethal violent crimes an individual can expect to suffer and the probability that he will die of homicide. The calculations carried out use recent statistics for The Bronx, N.Y.; they include the projection that the fraction of babies born there now who eventually die of murder may reach one in 11.
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