Objective: Recent contributions have highlighted the compatibility of choice- and structural-based perspectives of crime. Drawing on those insights, this study examines the mechanisms that may link neighborhood disadvantage to individual differences in subjective expectations of the risks, costs and rewards from crime. We also evaluate the extent to which subjective expectations may account for the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and individual offending. Methods: Using data from the Pathways to Desistance study and structural equation modeling, we decompose how experiences and interactions with others mediate the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage, subjective expectations and offending. Results: The impact of neighborhood disadvantage on perceived arrest risk is mediated by direct and vicarious arrest experiences. Social capital and commitment to conventional values partially mediate the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and anticipated social costs, and peer delinquency and peer attitudes partially mediate the association between disadvantage and perceived social rewards. Finally, we find that subjective expectations account for about one-third of the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and individual offending. Conclusions: Our study illuminates the value of integrating rational choice and sociological perspectives and highlights the utility of advancing multilevel rational choice theories of offending.
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