Whence the Action? the Persistence and Aggravation of Violent Crime at Addresses,Streets,and Neighborhoods

Abstract

Objectives

Researchers have long studied the persistence of violence and aggravation from disorder to violence in communities. Recently this work has begun to consider how these phenomena might operate simultaneously at multiple geographic scales. We examine the role of neighborhoods, streets, and addresses in these phenomena, presenting and assessing a five-part typology for cross-scale interactions.

Methods

We calculated six measures of physical disorder, social disorder, and violent crime from administrative records for all parcels (i.e., addresses) in Boston, MA, for 2011–2016. Multilevel models used these measures to predict public violence and gun-related events in the following year at all three geographical scales and with cross-scale interactions.

Results

Persistence was common at all scales. Aggravation from disorder to crime was greatest for addresses. Nearly all significant cross-level interactions involved addresses. The most common interactions were reinforced persistence, when persistence of violence at an address was reinforced by violence in the street or neighborhood; and mediated persistence, when persistence at a higher geographic scale operated through addresses with disorder.

Conclusions

The study suggests that action is greatest at addresses, but streets and neighborhoods offer critical context. It also provides a framework for future work assessing the complementarity of communities and places.