After the Cold War: Emerging Patterns of Armed Conflict 1989—94

Abstract

Contrary to popular belief, the number of armed conflicts has not been rising continuously after the end of the Cold War. This article reports on global armed conflict in the period 1989-94. In 1994 there were actually fewer active armed conflicts than in any other year in this six-year period. The same is true for wars, whereas conflicts at an intermediate level of intensity have increased. The overall reduction was observed also in Europe, which had experienced a strong increase in the number of armed conflicts at the end of the Cold War. Whether the current reduction can be termed a trend depends somewhat on the periodization. For the whole six-year period it appears that a new pattern of conflict after the Cold War is emerging, with prime emphasis on challenges to existing state authority. Several internationally recognized states have lost de facto control over parts of their territory. This may result in renewed fighting along ethnic and territorial lines if states attempt to restore the previous order - but also in the creation of new states or new forms of state if a negotiated settlement is reached.