Statistical studies of the determinants of defense expenditures have been criticized on two counts: (a) most of them do not test the hypotheses of causality that they include, but simply use them as a point of departure, and (b) those that do test causality are restricted to conceptual models with very few explanatory variables. The objective of this paper is to study the defense expenditures of the USA and the USSR, explicitly avoiding these two limitations. This is done using elementary statistical methods in somewhat unorthodox ways. The conclusions of the analyses are carefully compared with those obtained by other authors and the differences encountered are explained as far as possible. The analyses and comparisons show that the defense expenditures of the USA are determined by their own inertia and by political factors within the country, while those of the USSR are determined by their own inertia and the conditions of relations with the USA. The interest of these results is not in their novelty, but in the fact that they are obtained with procedures designed to provide a more solid foundation.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Azar, Edward , 1982. Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB). Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.
2.
Clarke, Roger A. & Dubravko J. I. Matko, 1983. Soviet Economic Facts, 1917-81. New York: St Martin's.
3.
Cusack, Thomas R. & Michael D. Ward, 1981. `Military Spending in the United States, Soviet Union, and the People's Republic of China', Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 25, no. 3, September, pp. 429-469.
4.
Domke, William K. ; Richard C. Eichenberg & Catherine M. Kelleher, 1983. `The Illusion of Choice: Defense and Welfare in Advanced Industrial Democracies, 1948-1978', American Political Science Review, vol. 77, no. 2, June, pp. 19-35.
5.
Freeman, John R. , 1983. `Granger Causality and the Time Series Analysis of Political Relationships', American Journal of Political Science, vol. 27, no. 2, May, pp. 327-358.
6.
Freeman, John R. , John T. Williams & Tse-min Lin, 1989. `Vector Autoregression and the Study of Politics', American Journal of Political Science, vol. 33, no. 4, November, pp. 842-877.
7.
Gallup, George H. , 1972. The Gallup Poll: Public Opinion 1935-1971. Vol. 2: 1949-1958, Vol. 3: 1959-1971. New York: Random House.
8.
Gallup, George H. , 1978. The Gallup Poll: Public Opinion 1972-1977. Vol. 1: 1972-1975, Vol. 2: 1976-1977. Wilmington, DE: Scholarly Resources.
9.
Gallup, George H. ed., annual, The Gallup Poll: Public Opinion. Wilmington, DE: Scholarly Resources.
10.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter , 1990. `Research on Arms Races', pp. 1-14 in Nils Petter Gleditsch & Olav Njølstad, eds, Arms Races: Technological and Political Dynamics. London: Sage.
11.
Goldmann, Kjell & Johan Lagerkranz, 1977. `Neither Tension nor Detente: East-West Relations in Europe', Cooperation and Conflict, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 251-264.
12.
Granger, William J. & Paul Newbold, 1977. Forecasting Economic Time Series. New York: Academic Press.
13.
Haugh, Larry D. , 1976. `Checking the Independence of Two Covariance-Stationary Time Series: A Univariate Residual Cross-Correlation Approach', Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 71, no. 354, June, pp. 378-385.
14.
Herman, Paul, 1984. The Conceptualization and Conduct of US-Soviet Detente. Unpublished PhD Dissertation, Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh.
15.
Joint Economic Commission , US Congress, 1982. USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development 1950-1980. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.
16.
Kamlet, Mark S. & David C. Mowery, 1987. `Influence on Executive and Congressional Budgetary Priorities, 1955-1981', American Political Science Review, vol. 81, no. 1, March, pp. 155-178.
17.
Lambelet, Jean-Christian ; Urs Luterbacher & Pierre Allan, 1979. `Dynamics of Arms Races: Mutual Stimulation vs. Self-Stimulation', Journal of Peace Science, vol. 4, no. 1, Fall, pp. 49-66.
18.
Majeski, Stephen, J. , 1983. `Mathematical Models of the US Military Expenditure Decision-Making Process', American Journal of Political Science, vol. 27, no. 3, August, pp. 485-514.
19.
Majeski, Stephen J. , 1985. `Expectations and Arms Races', American Journal of Political Science, vol. 29, no. 2, May, pp. 217-245.
20.
Majeski, Stephen J. & David L. Jones, 1981. `Arms Race Modeling', Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 25, no. 2, June, pp. 259-288.
21.
Manning, Raymond, E. 1956. Cost of US Wars. Washington, DC: Library of Congress, Legislative Reference Service.
22.
Marra, Robin F. , 1985. `A Cybernetics Model of US Defense Expenditure Policymaking Process', International Studies Quarterly, vol. 29, no. 4, December, pp. 357-384.
23.
Nelson, Charles R. & G. William Schwert, 1982. `Tests for Predictive Relationships between Time Series Variables: Monte Carlo Investigation', Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 77, no. 377, March, pp. 11-17.
24.
Norpoth, Helmut & Thom Yanteck, 1983. `Macroeconomic Conditions and Fluctuations of Presidential Popularity: The Question of Lagged Effects', American Journal of Political Science, vol. 27, no. 4, November, pp. 785-807.
25.
Ostrom, Charles W. Jr , 1977. `Evaluating Alternative Foreign Policy Decision-Making Models: An Empirical Test between an Arms Race Model and an Organizational Politics Model', Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 21, no. 2, June, pp. 235-266.
26.
Ostrom, Charles W. Jr , 1978. Time Series Analysis: Regression Techniques. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
27.
Ostrom, Charles W. Jr & Robin F. Marra, 1986. `US Defense Spending and the Soviet Estimate', American Political Science Review, vol. 80, no. 3, September, pp. 819-842.
28.
Pierce, David A. , 1977. `Relationships - and the lack thereof - between Economic Time Series, with Special Reference to Money and Interest Rates', Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 72, no. 357, March, pp. 11-22.
29.
Pierce, David A. & Larry D. Haugh, 1977. `Causality in Temporal Systems: Characterizations and a Survey', Journal of Econometrics, vol. 5, no. 3, May, pp. 265-293.
30.
Podell, Janet & Steven Anzovin, 1988. The Soviet Union. New York: Wilson.
31.
Russett, Bruce M. , 1983. `International Relations and Processes: The Internal vs. External Debate Revisited', pp. 541-568 in Ada W. Finifter, ed., Political Science: The State of the Discipline. Washington, DC: American Political Science Association.
32.
Simowitz, Roslyn L. & Barry L. Price, 1986. `Progress in the Study of International Conflict: A Methodological Critique', Journal of Peace Research, vol. 23, no. 1, March, pp. 29-40.
33.
Singer, J. David & Melvin Small, 1972. The Wages of War, 1816-1965: A Statistical Handbook. New York: Wiley.
34.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) , annual. SIPRI Yearbook of World Armaments and Disarmament. Oxford/New York: Oxford University Press.
35.
UN , annual. Demographic Yearbook. New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistical Office, United Nations.
36.
US Bureau of Economic Analysis , 1977. The National Income & Product Accounts of the United States 1929-76. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.
37.
US Bureau of the Census , 1986. Statistical Abstract of the United States 1987. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.
38.
US Bureau of the Census , 1975. Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.
39.
US Department of Defense , 1973. Economics of Defense Spending: A Look at the Realities, July 1972. Washington DC: US Government Printing Office.
40.
Zuk, Gary & Nancy R. Woodbury, 1986. `US Defense Spending, Electoral Cycles, and Soviet-American Relations', Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 30, no. 3, September, pp. 445-468.
