The Nuclear Era: Perception and Reality- a Century Apart?

Abstract

The world today harbors some 60,000 nuclear warheads, most of which dwarf the Hiroshima bomb; six acknow ledged nuclear powers; two presumed nuclear powers; 40 states capable of acquiring nuclear arsenals within ten years; amidst arms trade practices that provide ever-easier access to sophisticated delivery vehicles, fighter-bombers and cruise missiles. The spiralling trends towards ludicrous levels of nuclear redundancy and proliferation are fueled by a complex amalgam of economic, technological, and psychological factors. Analysts dwell on arms race theories, action-reaction models, the demands of 'leadtime' and 'worst case' concepts and requirements, the lure of new technologies, inter-service lobbying, bureaucratic politics, and the dynamics of vast and ensconced military-industrial complexes. The present analysis, however, focuses on a less appreciated but vital factor, namely the mind-set of the protagonists. The weaponry may belong to the 21st century; the decision-makers are socialized and formed by 19th century molds. The Brezhnev Doc trine is but an extension of the views of Nicholas the First, and owes nothing to Karl Marx. The Reagan Administration's new Latin American doctrine mirrors the biases and inclinations of Lloyd George and Clemenceau, not those of Plato. And this is the single most important reason why the nuclear steamroller has enjoyed, and will enjoy, such free reign.