External Threat and Democracy: The Role of NATO Revisited

Abstract

This article examines the role of NATO in aiding democratic transitions and survival in the former Soviet republics. The authors argue that the level of external threat is a determining factor in centralization, militarization, and ultimately regime type. States tend to be democratic or are likely to make the transition toward democracy when threat levels are low, while autocracies are more likely to be found in states targeted by higher levels of threat. Building on recent findings examining the link between democracies and alliance, the authors demonstrate that NATO has been an effective guarantor of territorial sovereignty and independence in the Baltic states, Ukraine, and Moldova, reducing the level of threat experienced by each state, thus assuring the survival of decentralized and democratic governments. Former Soviet republics targeted by high levels of threat have reverted to or maintained centralized, autocratic forms of government.