How Peace Agreements Are Derailed: The Evolution of Values in Cyprus,1959

Abstract

This article investigates the relationship between risk-taking behavior and value prioritization and develops an analytical framework that helps explain where groups stood over time on a high/low conflict continuum in the case of Cyprus (1959–74). It seeks to explain how peace agreements derail by focusing on the evolution of value-frames (the linguistic windows through which we see or interpret) held by agent/stakeholders representing ethnic groups in conflict. A value is an enduring belief that a specific mode of conduct is preferable to an opposite or converse mode of conduct or end-state of existence, and a value system is an enduring organization of beliefs concerning preferable modes of conduct or end-states of existence along a continuum of relative importance. With the use of smallest space analysis (SSA), the article creates a value-based model that could be applied to post-agreement processes to help assess psycho-political readiness to reach agreement or resort to force. The present study suggests monitoring the evolution of the value structures of groups in post-settlement processes to develop a better sense of how decisions to sign peace agreements are reassessed by the former signatories, how groups in conflict adapt to the demands of peace processes, and, as a consequence, how they establish the criteria to evaluate risks and gains.

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Amar, Reuven & Shlomo Toledano , 1994. HUDAP Manual with Mathematics. Jerusalem: Hebrew University of Jerusalem Computing Center .

Andrus, David , 1975. The Origins of American Involvement in Vietnam: A Thematic Content Analysis of the Pentagon Papers. Los Angeles, CA: University of Southern California .

Ball-Rokeach, Sandra & William E. Loges , 1996. ‘Making Choices: Media Roles in the Construction of Value-Choice’, in Seligman, Olson & Zanna (277–299).

Ball-Rokeach, Sandra ; Milton Rokeach & Joel W. Grube , 1984. The Great American Values Test: Influencing Behavior and Belief Through Television. New York & London: Free Press & Collier Macmillan .

Ball-Rokeach, Sandra ; Gerard F. Power , K. Kendall Guthrie & H. Ross Waring , 1990. ‘Value-Framing Abortion in the United States: An Application of Media System Dependency Theory’ , International Journal of Public Opinion Research 2(3): 249–273 .

Borg, Ingwer & James C. Lingoes , 1987. Multidimensional Similarity Structure Analysis. New York: Springer .

Borg, Ingwer & Samuel Shye , 1995. Facet Theory: Form and Content. Newbury Park, CA: Sage .

Braithwaite, Valerie A. & William A. Scott , 1991. ‘Values’, in Philip R. Shaver , John P. Robinson & Lawrence S. Wrightsman , eds, Measures of Personality and Social Psychology Attitudes. New York: Academic (661–753).

Brown, Jennifer , 1985. ‘An Introduction to the Uses of Facet Theory’, in Canter (17–57).

10.

Canter, David , ed., 1985. Facet Theory: Approaches to Social Research. New York: Springer .

11.

Clerides, Glafkos , 1989. My Deposition, Vol. 1. Nicosia: Alithia .

12.

Cohen, Erik H. & Reuven Amar , 2002. ‘External Variables as Points in Smallest Space Analysis: A Theoretical, Mathematical and Computer-Based Contribution’ , Bulletin de Mèthodologie Sociologique 75: 40–56 .

13.

Farnham, Barbara , 1997. Roosevelt and the Munich Crisis, 1938: A Study of Political Decisionmaking. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press .

14.

George, Alexander , 1959. ‘Quantitative – Qualitative Approaches to Content Analysis’, in Ithiel de Sola Pool , ed., Trends in Content Analysis. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press (7–32).

15.

George, Alexander , 1980. Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice. Boulder, CO: Westview .

16.

Guttman, Louis , 1968. ‘A General Non-Metric Technique for Finding the Smallest Coordinate Space for a Configuration of Points’ , Psychometrika 33(4): 469–507 .

17.

Guttman, Louis & Shlomit Levy , 1991. ‘The Structure of Interrelations Among Intelligence Tests’ , Intelligence 15(1): 79–103 .

18.

Guttman, Ruth & Charles W. Greenbaum , 1998. ‘Facet Theory: Its Development and Current Status’ , European Psychologist 3(1): 13–36 .

19.

Holsti , Ole R. , 1969. Content Analysis for the Social Sciences and the Humanities. Reading, MA: Addison Wesley .

20.

Hopple, Gerald W. , 1980. Political Psychology and Biopolitics: Assessing and Predicting Elite Behavior in Foreign Policy Crises. Boulder, CO: Westview .

21.

Judd, Charles , 1978. ‘Cognitive Effects of Attitude Conflict Resolution’ , Journal of Conflict Resolution 22(4): 483–498 .

22.

Kelly, George , 1955. The Psychology of Personal Constructs. New York: Norton .

23.

Kelman, Herbert C. , 1958. ‘Compliance, Identification, and Internalization: Three Processes of Attitude Change’ , Journal of Conflict Resolution 2(1): 140–151 .

24.

Kluckhohn, Clyde , 1951. ‘Values and Value Orientations in the Theory of Action: An Exploration in Definition and Classification’, in Talcott Parsons & Edward Albert Shils , eds, Toward a General Theory of Action. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press (388–433).

25.

Kranidiotes, Giannos , 1984. To Kypriako Provlima, 1960–1974[The Problem of Cyprus, 1960–1974]. Athens: Themelio .

26.

Kriesberg, Louis , 1991. ‘Introduction: Timing Conditions, Strategies and Errors’, in Louis

27.

Kriesberg & Stuart Johnson , eds, Timing the De-Escalation of International Conflicts. Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press (1–26).

28.

Krippendorff, Klaus , 1980. Content Analysis: An Introduction to Its Methodology. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage .

29.

Kyriakides, Stanley , 1968. Cyprus: Constitutionalism and Crisis Government. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press .

30.

Levy, Jack , 1994. ‘Prospect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications and Analytical Problems’, in Barbara Farnham , ed., Avoiding Losses/Taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict. Ann Arbor, MI: Michigan University Press (119–146).

31.

Levy, Shlomit , 1985. ‘Lawful Roles of Facets in Social Theories’, in Canter (59–96).

32.

Levy, Shlomit , 1990. ‘Values and Deeds’ , Applied Psychology: An International Review 39(5): 379–400 .

33.

Levy, Shlomit & Louis Guttman , 1985. ‘A Faceted Cross-Cultural Analysis of Some Core Social Values’, in Shlomit Levy , ed., Louis Guttman on Theory and Methodology. Brook-field, VT: Dartmouth (3–18).

34.

Licklider, Roy , 1995. ‘The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945–1993’ , American Political Science Review 89(3): 685–687 .

35.

Lund, Michael S. , 1997. Preventing Violent Conflicts: A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press .

36.

Polyviou, Polyvios , 1980. Cyprus: Conflict and Negotiation, 1960–1980. New York: Holmes and Meier .

37.

Rohan, Meg J. , 2000. ‘A Rose by Any Name? The Values Construct’ , Personality and Social Psychology Review 4(3): 255–278 .

38.

Rokeach, Milton , 1968. Beliefs, Attitudes, and Values. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass .

39.

Rokeach, Milton , 1973. The Nature of Human Values. New York: Free Press .

40.

Rubin, Jeffrey , 1991. ‘The Timing of Ripeness and the Ripeness of Timing’, in Louis Kriesberg & Stuart Johnson , eds, Timing the De-Escalation of International Conflicts. Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press (237–246).

41.

Schwartz, Shalom , 1996. ‘Value Priorities and Behavior: Applying a Theory of Integrated Value Systems’, in Seligman, Olson & Zanna (1–24).

42.

Schwartz, Shalom & Lilach Sagiv , 1995. ‘ Identifying Culture-Specifics in the Content and Structure of Values’ , Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology 26(1): 92–116 .

43.

Scott, William A. , 1958. ‘Rationality and Non-Rationality of International Attitudes’ , Journal of Conflict Resolution 2(1): 8–16 .

44.

Seligman, Clive ; James M. Olson & Mark P. Zanna , eds, 1996. The Psychology of Values: Ontario Symposium. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum .

45.

Shapiro, Gilbert & John Markoff , 1998. Revolutionary Demands: A Content Analysis of the Cahiers Des Doleances of 1789. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press .

46.

Stedman, Stephen John , 1991. Peacemaking in Civil War: International Mediation in Zimbabwe 1974–1980. Boulder, CO & London: Lynne Rienner .

47.

Stein, Janice Gross & Raymond Tanter , 1978. Decision-Making. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press .

48.

Tarrow, Sydney , 1995. ‘Bridging the Qualitative–Quantitative Divide in Political Science’ , American Political Science Review 89(2): 471–474 .

49.

Tetlock, Philip E. , 1983. ‘Cognitive Style and Political Ideology’ , Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 45(1): 74–83 .

50.

Tetlock, Philip E. , 1984. ‘Cognitive Style and Political Belief Systems in the British House of Commons’ , Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 46(2): 365–375 .

51.

Tetlock, Philip E. , 1985. ‘Accountability: The Neglected Social Content of Judgment and Choice’ , Research in Organizational Behavior 7: 295–332 .

52.

Tetlock, Philip E. , 1986. ‘A Value Pluralism Model of Ideological Reasoning’ , Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 50(4): 819–827 .

53.

Tetlock, Philip ; Randall S. Peterson & Jennifer S. Lerner , 1996. ‘Revising the Value Pluralism Model: Incorporating Social Content and Context Postulates’, in Seligman, Olson & Zanna (25–51).

54.

Vertzberger, Yaakov , 1990. The World in Their Minds. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press .

55.

Williams, Robin M. , 1968. ‘The Concept of Values’, in David Sills , ed., International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences. New York: Macmillan (283–287).

56.

Winter, David G. , 2003. ‘Asymmetrical Perceptions of Power in Crises: A Comparison of 1914 and the Cuban Missile Crisis’ , Journal of Peace Research 40(3): 251–270 .

57.

Zartman, I. William , 1989. Ripe for Resolution: Conflict and Intervention in Africa. Oxford: Oxford University Press .

Supplementary Material

Please find the following supplemental material available below.

For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.

For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.

0.00 MB

How Peace Agreements Are Derailed: The Evolution of Values in Cyprus,1959–74

Abstract

Get full access to this article

References

Supplementary Material