Insurgency and the Opening of Peace Processes

Abstract

One of the most striking features of insurgency is how infrequently the two sides attempt peaceful negotiation. Very often, the government refuses to grant the insurgents legitimacy as a bargaining partner. Yet, some conflicts do reach a point at which the two sides open negotiation. This article seeks to develop an explanation of the timing of negotiation during insurgency. Using a game theoretic model, this article concludes that for negotiation to take place, the insurgents must be able to survive their initial vulnerability. In the early stages of the insurgency, the government is likely to use all of its resources to repress the group. In most cases, such efforts will be successful. However, if the insurgency persists, the insurgents' capability will grow with time. By continuing to fight the government, the insurgents will begin adapting to government tactics. If the insurgents survive a certain period of fighting, a window for negotiation is likely to emerge. If the government fails to repress the insurgents early, it may be forced to negotiate under less favorable circumstances later in the conflict. However, if negotiations fail, the window will close, owing to the increasing power of the insurgents. If the insurgents develop a belief of invulnerability, the group will no longer believe it needs to negotiate with the government. These predictions are tested using duration analysis on a set of insurgencies from the State Failure Data from 1955 to 2001.