Power Shifts and Economic Development: When Will China Overtake the USA?

Abstract

A dynamic pattern that historically played an important role in the rise and fall of the major powers involves the early attainment of power supremacy by comparatively small countries that developed earlier and subsequently lost their status to larger countries that developed later. Cases in point are the staggered rise in power of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, and their subsequent loss of status to the USA and the USSR. The development of China and, at some point in the future, of India has the potential of pushing these countries to superpower status while pushing the USA and a revitalized Russia to substantially lower power ranks. If this sequence of events comes to pass, it will fit the same fundamental dynamics that rendered the USA and the USSR superpowers to begin with. The thesis that the economic development of large countries can produce power shifts of major consequence is the focal theme of this article. First, this thesis is discussed in general terms, is related to a number of literatures from several disciplines, and is validated using an econometric model and empirical data. Then, the thesis is brought to bear upon the USA/China ‘case’. In this connection, the USA/China shifts in power capabilities that have occurred during the past 50 years are documented and extrapolated over the 1995–2050 time-horizon. The extrapolations are based on seven projections that span diverse presuppositions, assumptions, and approaches. The conceptual and analytical generalities, the empirical analyses, and the forecasts presented suggest the possibility that China will acquire power superiority over the USA within the next half-century.