Successful Negotiation in International Violent Conflict

Abstract

Negotiation in violent international conflict has not often been studied using systematic large-N comparisons. This article utilizes an original dataset of international disputes and negotiation efforts occurring in the 1945-95 period to assess the character of international negotiation and to examine the contextual and process variables which affect negotiation outcomes. These variables are classed under three categories: (1) the nature of the dispute; (2) the nature of the parties and their ongoing relationship; and (3) conflict management characteristics, or process factors. In the study, a preliminary analysis is undertaken to determine the nature and degree to which the variables in each of these categories affect negotiation outcomes. The results indicate that from the first two categories, dispute intensity, dispute complexity, the underlying issues, the relative power of the parties, the alignment of the parties, and the parties' previous relations all impact on negotiation outcomes. In the third category, the timing, site, initiator, and rank of the negotiators all emerge as significant factors. The article presents conclusions on the effectiveness of international negotiation in resolving violent international disputes, and points the way for more much-needed empirical work in this area.