The authors develop and apply a probabilistic model designed to identify currently nonexporting manufacturers with a relatively high potential for future exports. The proposed model includes a new predictive construct (market expansion ability), which incorporates the time dimension of firm behavior, in addition to more familiar attitudinal constructs such as perceived barriers to exporting. The model is demonstrated with a sample of 345 nonexporting manufacturers. Several evaluative tests, including a test of predictive validity with a sample of 43 current exporters, provide evidence of the model's ability to identify nonexporting manufacturers with export potential.
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