In any given time period, a small brand typically has far fewer buyers than a larger brand. In addition, its buyers tend to buy it less often. This pattern is an instance of a widespread phenomenon called “double jeopardy” (DJ). The authors describe the wide range of empirical evidence for DJ, the theories that account for its occurrence, known exceptions and deviations, and practical implications.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AndersonPaul F. (1983), “Marketing, Scientific Progress, and Scientific Method,”Journal of Marketing, 47(Fall), 18–31.
2.
BarnardNeil R., and EhrenbergAndrew S. C. (1990), “Robust Measures of Consumer Brand Beliefs,”Journal of Marketing Research (forthcoming).
3.
BarwiseT. P. (1986), “Repeat-Viewing of Prime-Time US Programs,”Journal of Advertising Research, 28(August-September), 9–14.
4.
BarwiseT. P., and EhrenbergA. S. C. (1984), “The Reach of TV Channels,”International Journal of Research in Marketing, 1(1), 37–49.
5.
BarwiseT. P., and EhrenbergA. S. C. (1985), “Consumer Beliefs and Brand Usage,”Journal of the Market Research Society, 27, 81–93.
6.
BarwiseT. P., and EhrenbergA. S. C. (1987), “The Liking and Viewing of Regular TV Programs,”Journal of Consumer Research, 14(June), 63–70.
7.
BarwiseT. P., and EhrenbergA. S. C. (1988), Television and Its Audience.Newbury Park, CA, and London: Sage Publications, Inc.
8.
BarwiseT. P., HigsonC. J., LikiermanJ. A., and MarshP. R. (1989), Accounting for Brands.London: Institute of Chartered Accountants.
9.
CastleberryS. R., and EhrenbergA. S. C. (1990), “Brand Usage: A Factor in Consumer Beliefs,”Marketing Research (forthcoming).
10.
ChatfieldChristopher, and GoodhardtGerald (1975), “Results Concerning Brand Choice,”Journal of Marketing Research, 12(February), 110–13.
11.
ColomboR. A., and MorrisonD. E. (1989), “A Brand Switching Model with Implications for Marketing Strategies,”Marketing Science, 8, 89–106.
12.
CooperL. G., and NakanishiM. (1988), Market-Share Analysis.Boston: Kluwer.
13.
DavisR. E., EhrenbergA. S. C., HammondK., and UnclesM. D. (1990), “The Dirichlet for 35 Product-Categories.” London Business School: CMaC Working Paper.
14.
DrehmannM. (1987), personal communication.
15.
EhrenbergA. S. C. (1971), “Predicting the Performance of New Brands,”Journal of Advertising Research, 11(6), 3–10.
16.
EhrenbergA. S. C. (1972, 1988), Repeat-Buying: Theory and Applications, 2nd ed. London: Charles Griffin; New York: Oxford University Press.
17.
EhrenbergA. S. C. (1975), “The Structure of an Industrial Market: Aviation Fuel Contracts,”Industrial Marketing Management, 4(5), 273–85.
18.
EhrenbergA. S. C. (1990), “New Brands and the Existing Market.” London Business School: CMaC Working Paper.
19.
EhrenbergA. S. C., and BoundJ. A. (1990), “Prediction and Predictability: A Case Discussion.” London Business School: CMaC Working Paper.
20.
EhrenbergA. S. C., and GoodhardtG. J. (1976), Decision Models and Descriptive Models in Marketing.Cambridge, MA: Marketing Science Institute.
21.
EhrenbergA. S. C., and GoodhardtG. J. (1988), “The Double Jeopardy Effect for UK Daily Papers.” London Business School: CMaC Working Paper.
22.
EllisK. (1989), “Private Label Buying Behaviour,” PhD thesis, London University.
23.
GoodhardtG. J., EhrenbergA. S. C., and ChatfieldC. (1984), “The Dirichlet: A Comprehensive Model of Buying Behaviour,”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, A147, 621–55.
24.
GoodhardtG. J., EhrenbergA. S. C., and CollinsM. A. (1975), The Television Audience: Patterns of Viewing.Aldershot, UK: Gower Press (updated edition 1987).
25.
JacobyJacob (1978), “Consumer Research: State of the Art Review,”Journal of Marketing, 42(April), 87–96.
26.
KahnBarbara E., KalwaniManohar U., and MorrisonDonald G. (1988), “Niching Versus Change-of-Pace Brands,”Journal of Marketing Research, 25(November), 384–90.
27.
KengKau Ah, and EhrenbergA. S. C. (1984), “Patterns of Store-Choice,”Journal of Marketing Research, 21(November), 399–408.
28.
KengKau Ah, EhrenbergA. S. C., and BarnardN. R. (1990), “Competitive Brand-Choice: Japan and the West.” London Business School: CMaC Working Paper.
29.
LeoneRobert P., and SchultzRandall L. (1980), “A Study of Marketing Generalizations,”Journal of Marketing, 44(Winter), 10–18.
30.
LeuthesserL., ed. (1988), Defining, Measuring, and Managing Brand Equity.Cambridge, MA: Marketing Science Institute.
31.
MartinG. R. (1973), “The Theory of Double Jeopardy,”Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 1(Fall), 148–55.
32.
McPheeW. N. (1963), Formal Theories of Mass Behavior.New York: The Free Press.
33.
MeneerP. (1987), “Audience Appreciation—A Different Story from Audience Numbers,”Journal of the Market Research Society, 29, 241–54.
34.
MosimannJ. E. (1962), “On the Compound Multinomial Distribution, the Multivariate B-distribution, and Correlations Among Proportions,”Biometrika, 44, 65–82.
35.
MosimannJ. E. (1984), “Size and Shape Analysis,” in Encyclopedia of the Statistical Sciences, KotzS., and JohnsonN. L., eds. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
36.
NelsonJ. F. (1986), GAPM.Niverville, NY: Recurrent Statistics.
37.
RajS. P. (1985), “Striking a Balance Between Brand Popularity and Brand Loyalty,”Journal of Marketing, 49(Winter), 53–9.
38.
ShuchmanA. (1968), “Are There Laws of Consumer Behavior?”Journal of Advertising Research, 8(3), 19–28.
39.
SternP. (1990), personal communication.
40.
UnclesM. D. (1985), “Buying Patterns in the US Coffee Market.” London Business School: CMaC Working Paper.
41.
UnclesM. D. (1989), “BUYER: Software for the Dirichlet.” London Business School: CMaC Report.
42.
UnclesM. D., and EhrenbergA. S. C. (1988), “Patterns of Store-Choice: New Evidence from the USA,” in Store Choice, Store Location, and Market Analysis, WrigleyN. R., ed. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul.
43.
UnclesM. D., and EhrenbergA. S. C. (1990), “Aviation Fuel Contracts in Europe,”International Journal of Research in Marketing (forthcoming).
44.
WellanD., and EhrenbergA. S. C. (1988), “A Successful New Brand: Shield,”Journal of the Market Research Society, 30, 35–44.
45.
WellanD., and EhrenbergA. S. C. (1990), “Seasonal Segmentation,”Marketing Research (forthcoming).
46.
WindYoram, and MahajanVijay (1981), “Market-Share: Concepts, Findings and Directions for Future Research,” in Review of Marketing 1981, EnisBen, and RoeringK. J., eds. Chicago: American Marketing Association.
47.
WrigleyN. R., and DunnR. (1984), “Stochastic Panel-Data Models of Urban Shopping Behaviour,”Environment and Planning A, 16, 629–50, 759–78.
