This paper presents a comparative analysis of the findings of two field studies and three recent laboratory experiments that assessed the efficacy of judgment based models in aiding marketing decision making. This analysis indicates factors that may affect the effectiveness of these models. The implications of the findings for users of judgment based marketing decision models as well as model builders are discussed, and suggestions are made for future research to improve the models’ effectiveness.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AckoffR. I., and EmshoffJ. R. (1975), “Advertising Research at Anheuser-Busch Inc.,”Sloan Management Review, 16 (Winter), 1–15.
2.
ArmstrongJ. S. (1978), Long Range Forecasting, New York: Wiley Interscience.
3.
BowmanE. H. (1963), “Consistency and Optimality in Managerial Decision Making,”Management Science, 9 (January), 310–321.
4.
ChakravartiD. (1979), “A Cognitive Approach to the Development and Implementation of Marketing Decision Models,” unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Carnegie-Mellon University.
5.
ChakravartiD., MitchellA. A., and StaelinR. (1977), “A Cognitive Approach to Model Building and Evaluation,” in Contemporary Marketing Thought, 1977 Educator's Proceedings, GreenbergB., and BellengerD., eds., Chicago: American Marketing Association, 213–218.
6.
ChakravartiD., MitchellA. A., and StaelinR. (1979), “Judgment Based Marketing Decision Models: An Experimental Investigation of the Decision Calculus Approach,”Management Science, 25 (March), 251–263.
7.
ChakravartiD., MitchellA. A., and StaelinR. (1980a), “Two Experiments Assessing the Efficacy of Judgment Based Models in Aiding Marketing Decisions,” in Market Measurement and Analysis, Proceedings of the First ORSA / TIMS Special Interest Conference, MontgomeryD. B., and WittinkD. R., eds., Cambridge, MA: Marketing Science Institute, 531–550.
8.
ChakravartiD., MitchellA. A., and StaelinR. (1980b), “A Procedure for Parameterizing Decision Calculus Models of Dynamic Market Response,” in Proceedings of the Second ORSA / TIMS Special Interest Conference on Market Measurement and Analysis, LeoneR., ed., Providence, RI: Institute of Management Science, 135–146.
9.
EdelmanF. (1965), “Art and Science of Competitive Bidding,”Harvard Business Review, 43 (July-August), 53–66.
10.
FudgeW. K., and LodishL. M. (1977), “Evaluation of the Effectiveness of a Model Based Salesmen's Planning System,”Interfaces, 8 (November), 97–106.
11.
GaverK. M., and GeiselM. S. (1973), “Discriminating Among Alernative Models: Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Methods,” in Frontiers in Econometrics, ZarembkaP., ed., New York: Academic Press.
12.
GoldbergL. R. (1970), “Man Versus Models of Man: A Rationale Plus Some Evidence for a Method of Improving on Clinical Inferences,”Psychological Bulletin, 73 (no. 6), 422–432.
13.
HowardJ. A., and MorgenrothW. M. (1968), “Information Processing Models of Executive Decision,”Management Science, 14 (March), 416–428.
14.
LarrecheJ., and MontgomeryD. B. (1977), “A Framework for the Comparison of Marketing Decision Models,”Journal of Marketing Research, 14 (November), 487–498.
15.
LittleJ. D. C. (1966), “A Model of Adaptive Control of Promotional Spending,”Operations Research, 14 (November-December), 1075–1097.
16.
LittleJ. D. C. (1970), “Models and Managers: The Concept of a Decision Calculus,”Management Science, 16 (April), B466–B485.
17.
LittleJ. D. C. (1975), “BRANDAID. A Marketing Mix Model. Part 1, Structure, and Part 2, Implementation,”Operations Research, 23 (July-August), 628–673.
18.
LittleJ. D. C. (1977), “Optimal Adaptive Control: A Multivariate Model for Marketing Applications,”IEEE, The Transactions on Automatic Control, AC22 (April), 187–195.
19.
LittleJ. D. C. (1979), “Decision Support Systems for Marketing Managers,”Journal of Marketing, 43 (Summer), 9–27.
20.
LittleJ. D. C. (1980), “Aggregate Advertising Models: The State of the Art,”Operations Research, 27 (July-August), 629–667.
21.
LodishL. M. (1971), “CALLPLAN. An Interactive Salesmen's Call Planning System,”Management Science, 18 (December), P25–P40.
22.
MarchJ. G., and SimonH. A. (1958), “Organizations,”New York: Wiley.
23.
McIntyreS. (1980), “The Leverage Impact of Judgment Based Marketing Models,” in Market Measurement and Analysis, Proceedings of the First ORSA / TIMS Special Interest Conference, MontgomeryD. B., and WittinkD. R., eds., Cambridge, MA: Marketing Science Institute, 551–567.
24.
MitchellA. A., and MortonT. E. (1976), “Toward a General Dynamic Model of Market Response,” in Marketing: 1776-1976 and Beyond, BernhardtK. L., ed., Chicago: American Marketing Association, 639–643.
25.
MontgomeryD. B., and WeinbergC. B. (1973), “Modeling Marketing Phenomena: A Managerial Perspective,”Journal of Contemporary Business, (Autumn), 17–43.
26.
MontgomeryD. B., SilkA. J., and ZaragozaC. C. (1971), “A Multiproduct Sales Effort Allocation Model,”Management Science, 18 (December), P3–P24.
27.
PekelmanD., and TseE. (1980), “Experimentation and Budgeting in Advertising, An Adaptive Control Approach,”Operations Research, 28 (March-April), 321–347.
28.
RossL. (1977), “The Intuitive Psychologist and His Shortcomings: Distortions in the Attribution Process,” in Advances in Experimental Psychology, 10, BerkowitzL., ed., New York: Academic Press, 173–220.
29.
SawyerJ. (1966), “Measurement and Prediction: Clinical and Statistical,”Psychological Bulletin, 66 (no. 3), 178–200.
30.
SimonH. (1957), Models of Man, New York: Wiley.
31.
SlovicP., FischoffB., and LichtensteinS. (1977), “Behavioral Decision Theory,”Annual Review of Psychology, 28, 1–39.
32.
StaelinR., and TurnerR. E. (1973), “Error in Judgmental Sales Forecasts: Theory and Results,”Journal of Marketing Research, 10 (February), 10–16.
33.
TverskyA., and KahnemanD. (1974), “Judgments Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,”Science, 185 (September), 1124–1131.