A New Approach to Sales Forecasting and Production Scheduling

Abstract

The potential contributions of short-term sales forecasts to production economies are often overlooked. The short-term behavior of the manufacturer's shipments can be anticipated with accuracy once the constant interaction of the sales of stock-carrying intermediaries, the changes of inventories of such intermediaries, and the order pattern of such intermediaries are known and understood.

The volume of sales during a 3-month forecast period is largely determined by events which occurred prior to the beginning of the forecast period. If accurate information on all past events of importance is available, reliable forecasts can be produced.