This article uses individual-level data from the New Zealand Election Study surveys to analyse trade union membership decline between 1990 and 2002. The abrupt decline in union density during the first two-and-a-half years of the Employment Contracts Act 1991 was concentrated almost entirely in the private and mixed/non-profit sectors, and was sharpest among workers in the secondary labour market. Across 1990—2002, compositional change (i.e. change in the structure of the economy and workforce) and attitudinal change, as captured in our analysis, had little impact on union density decline. Most of the decline in density explained in this analysis can be attributed to within-group behavioural change. A number of explanations are discussed. The findings are consistent with the thesis that the sharp decline in union membership under the Employment Contracts Act 1991 was largely due to receding union reach, resulting in the current unfulfilled demand for union membership reported elsewhere.
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