Abstract
This article describes a systemic analysis of the early childhood development factors that explain the variance in readiness for school among representative 5-year-olds in the United States. The model expresses a theory that incorporates a broad set of causally interactive endogenous variables that are hypothesized to be driven by the effects of three exogenous variables: parental education, immigrant status and racial/ethnic identity, and single-parent/divorced/remarried vs. stable-marriage family status. While exogenous is generally defined as “outside,” for the purposes of this analysis, racial/ethnic identity is exogenous in that, in contrast to the endogenous variables in the model, it is not influenced–-and does not change–-in interaction with other variables in the model.
The model was run in computer simulation mode. The results are compatible with what is known about school readiness patterns. While this finding does not establish validity per se, it does suggest that the model provides a reasonable multivariate, systemic description of factors that determine readiness for school at the age of 5 and that offer a reasonable explanation for the variance in school readiness among 5-year-olds.
Finally, the model was run in experimental computer simulation mode to evaluate the likely effects of five interventions that relate to: (1) cognitive and academic factors, (2) health care and nutrition, (3) income, (4) reducing the effect of low income on family stress, and (5) a combination of all these types. All the interventions were simulated by modifying the structure of the model to moderate the effects of low parental education and low income on other key variables in the system of early childhood development.
As expected, combining the interventions related to cognitive and academic factors, health and nutrition, and family stress with straightforward increases in low family income had a very substantial effect on the relative age of school readiness of children of parents with very low educational attainment (from a relative age of 2.9 years to a relative age of 4.3 years)–-with very modest improvements in school readiness for children whose parents did not graduate from college. It is acknowledged that such a set of comprehensive interventions would be very costly and, probably, politically infeasible. The more limited and less costly interventions–-e.g., cognitive and academic–-vary in their likely effectiveness; the least effective interventions are those that affect only health and nutrition.
The findings of this systemic analysis are generally consistent with the literature, at the same time emphasizing the weaknesses in the current knowledge base, which is largely based on correlational research. What is needed–-although difficult to do–-is bivariate experimental research that would provide the effect sizes that are needed for more precise systemic analysis.
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