This study projects substance abuse and dependence prevalence rates based on the number of early problem behaviors (tobacco, alcohol and marijuana use, and arrests prior to age 15) reported by youth who have taken part in eleven administrations of the annual Kansas Communities That Care survey following a model developed by McGue and Iacono (2005). The probability of males and females developing a substance abuse or dependence disorder at age 17 and 20 was assigned to each respondent. Projections were mapped to show county and statewide dispersions for planning purposes. Projected numbers were much higher than expected. In addition to young adult treatment need, the implications for prevention service planning became readily apparent. The findings highlight missed opportunities for indicated prevention and early intervention services and are further discussed in the context of how early intervention might alleviate demand on the treatment system as adolescents progress into young adulthood.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
ArnettJ.1992Reckless behavior in adolescence: A developmental perspective. Developmental Review, 12, 339–373
2.
ArthurM. W.HawkinsJ. D.PollardJ. A.CatalanoR. F.BaglioniA. J.Jr.2002Measuring risk and protective factors for substance use, delinquency, and other adolescent program behaviors. Evaluation Review, 26, 575–601
3.
BiglanM.GilpinE. A.RohrbachL. A.PierceJ. P.2004Is there a simple correction factor for comparing adolescent tobacco-use estimates from school- and home-based surveys?Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 6, 427–437
4.
BonomoY. A.BowesG.CoffeyC.CarlinJ. B.PattonG. C.2004Teenage drinking and the onset of alcohol dependence: A cohort study over seven years. Addiction, 99, 1520–1528
5.
BrenerN. D.EatonD. K.KannL.GrunbaumJ. A.GrossL. A.KyleT. M.RossJ. G.2006The association of survey setting and mode with self-reported health risk behaviors among high school students. Public Opinion Quarterly, 70, 354–374
6.
BreslauN.FennN.PetersonE. L.1993Early smoking initiation and nicotine dependence in a cohort of young adults. Drug & Alcohol Dependence, 33, 129–137
7.
ChassinL.ForaD. B.KingK. M.2004Trajectories of alcohol and drug use and dependence from adolescence to adulthood: The effects of familial alcoholism and personality. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 113 (4), 483–498
8.
ChenC. Y.O'BrienM. S.AnthonyJ. C.2005Who becomes cannabis dependent soon after onset of use? Epidemiological evidence from the United States: 2000–2001. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 79, 11–22
9.
CostelloE. J.ErkanliA.FedermanE.AngoldA.1999Development of psychiatric comorbidity with substance abuse in adolescents: Effects of timing and sex. Journal of Clinical Child Psychology, 28, 298–311
10.
DawsonD. A.GoldsteinR. B.ChouS. P.RuanW. J.GrantB. F.2008Age at first dirk and the first incidence of adult-onset DSM-IV alcohol use disorders. Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research, 32, 1–12
11.
DishionT. J.KavanaghK.2003Intervening in adolescent problem behavior: A family-centered approach. New York: Guilford Press
12.
FiorentineR.1994Assessing drug and alcohol treatment needs of general and special populations: Conceptual, empirical, and inferential issues. Journal of Drug Issues, 24, 445–462
13.
FlewellingR.FarrellyM.WeimerB. J.Herman-StahlM.RachalJ. V.BecnelJ. M.SimmonsD. A.LeBlancJ.1998Using social indicators to estimate substance use treatment needs in Louisiana: Final report. New Orleans, LA: Louisiana State University Medical Center, Research Triangle Institute
14.
GreenbergJ.MagderL.AralS.1992Age at first coitus: A marker for risky sexual behavior in women. Sexually Transmitted Diseases, 19, 331–334
15.
GruenewaldP. J.2000Small area estimates from a geostatistical perspective: Current status and future directions. In WilsonR.DuFourM. (Eds.), The epidemiology of alcohol problems in small geographic areas (NIAAA Research Monograph No. 36, pp. 245–270). Bethesda, MD: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
HingsonR. W.HeerenT.WinterM. R.2006Age at drinking onset and alcohol dependence: Age at onset, duration and severity. Archives of Pediatric Adolescent Medicine, 160, 739–746
18.
HughesA.SatheN.SpagnolaK.2009State estimates of substance use from the 2006–2007 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (HHS Publication No. SMA 09–4362). Rockville, MD: Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Office of Applied Studies. Retrieved September 7, 2009, from http://oas.samhsa.gov/2k7state/ageTabs.htm
19.
JohnstonL. D.O'MalleyP. M.BachmanJ. G.SchulenbergJ. E.2006Teen drug use continues down in 2006, particularly among older teens; but use of prescription-type drugs remains high, [Press release]. Retrieved May 17, 2007, from www.monitoringthefuture.org/pressreleases/06drugpr.pdf
20.
KandelD. B.YamaguchiK.ChenK.1992Stages of progression in drug involvement from adolescence to adulthood: Further evidence for the gateway theory. Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 53, 447–457
21.
KesslerR. C.2006National comorbidity survey: Replication (NCS-R), 2001–2003. Conducted by Harvard Medical School, Department of Health Care/University of Michigan, Survey Research Center. ICPSR04438-v3. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [producer and distributor], 2006–12–08
22.
KesslerR. C.BerglundP.DemlerO.JinR.MerikangasK. R.WaltersE. E.2005Lifetime prevalence and age-of-onset distributions of DSM-IV disorders in the National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R). Archives of General Psychiatry, 62 (6), 593–602
23.
KishL.1965Survey sampling. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
24.
LegrandL.IaconoW.McGueM.2005Predicting addiction. American Scientist, 93 (2), 140–147
25.
LynskeyM. T.HeathA. C.BucholzK. K.SlutskeW. S.MaddenP. A. F.NelsonE. C.StathamD. J.MartinN. G.2003Escalation of drug use in early-onset cannabis users vs co-twin controls. Journal of the American Medical Association, 289, 427–433
26.
MaggsJ. L.AlmeidaD. M.GalambosN. L.1995Risky business: The paradoxical meaning of problem behavior for young adolescents. Journal of Early Adolescence, 15, 344–362
27.
MayzerR.FitzgeraldH. E.ZuckerR. A.2009Anticipating problem drinking risk from preschoolers' antisocial behavior: Evidence for a common delinquency-related diathesis model. Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, 48 (8), 820–827
28.
McAuliffeW. E.BreerP.AhmadifarN. W.SpinoC.1991Assessment of drug abuser treatment needs in Rhode Island. American Journal of Public Health, 81, 365–371
29.
McCambridgeJ.StrangJ.2003Development of a structured generic drug intervention model for public health purposes: A brief application of motivational interviewing with young people. Drug and Alcohol Review, 22, 391–399
30.
McGueM.IaconoW. G.2005The association of early adolescent problem behavior with adult psychopathology. American Journal of Psychiatry, 162, 1118–1124
31.
MinughP. A.LomutoN. A.BreedenK. R.McGueM.IaconoW. G.LegrandL. N.ElkinsI.2001The origins and consequences of age at first drink, I: Associations with substance-use disorders, disinhibitory behavior and psychopathology, and P3 amplitude. Alcoholism: Clinical & Experimental Research, 25, 1156–1165
32.
LegrandL. N.ElkinsI.2005Social indicator and gap analysis study: Final technical report. Report prepared for the Wyoming Department of Health, Substance Abuse Division. Providence, RI: Datacorp
33.
MinughP. A.LomutoN. A.JankeS. L.EmbryD. D.2006Kansas comprehensive treatment needs assessment: Capacity/gap analysis study: Final technical report. Report prepared for the Kansas Department of Social and Rehabilitation Services, Addiction and Prevention Services Division. Providence, RI: Datacorp
34.
OdgersC. L.CaspiA.NaginD. S.PiqueroA. R.SlutskeW. S.MilneB. J.DicksonN.PoultonR.MoffittT. E. in press Is it important to prevent early exposure to drugs and alcohol among adolescents?Psychological Science
35.
Office of Applied Studies. 2006Substate estimates from the 2002–2004 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health. Rockville, MD: Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration
36.
Regional Educational Laboratory for the Central Region. 2009High school dropout and graduation rates in the central region (Contract No. ED-06-CO-0023). Denver, CO: Mid-continent Research for Education and Learning
37.
ReynaV. F.FarleyF.2006Risk and rationality in adolescent decision making: Implications for theory, practice and public policy. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 7, 1–44
SpenceR.2003Analysis model for planning chemical dependence treatment systems. Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment, 24, 175–181
40.
StahlM. H.WiesenC. A.FlewellingR. L.WeimerB.BrayR. M.RachalJ. V.2001Using social indicators to estimate county-level substance abuse intervention and treatment needs. Substance Use and Misuse, 36, 501–521
41.
TaylorJ.IaconoW. G.McGueM.2000Evidence for a genetic etiology of early-onset delinquency. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 109, 634–643
42.
UdryJ. R.ChantalaK.2003Missing school dropouts in surveys does not bias risk estimates. Social Science Research, 32 (2), 294–311
43.
United States Department of Health and Human Services. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. Office of Applied Studies. 2007 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2007 (Study No. 23782) [Data file]. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [Distributor]. Retrieved September 4, 2009, from http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/cocoon/SAMHDA/STUDY/23782.xml
44.
VinerR. M.TaylorB.2007Adult outcomes of binge drinking in adolescence: Findings from a UK national birth cohort. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 61 (10), 902–907
45.
WuL. T.PilowskyD. J.SchlengerW. E.2005High prevalence of substance use disorders among adolescents who use marijuana and inhalants. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 78, 23–32
46.
ZuckermanM.2007Sensation seeking and risky behavior. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association
