Drug markets have been targeted for increasingly tough enforcement, yet retail prices for cocaine and heroin have fallen by 70–80%. No research has explained adequately why prices have fallen. This paper explores the possibility that part of the explanation may lie in the failure of drug dealers to respond to risks the way the simplest rational actor models might predict.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
BoyumD.A.1992Reflections on economic theory and drug enforcement. Unpublished Ph.D. thesis in public policy, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA.
2.
CaulkinsJ.P.2001The relationship between prices and emergency department mentions for cocaine and heroin. American Journal of Public Health, 91(9), 1446–1448.
3.
CaulkinsJ.P.HeymannP.B.2001How should low-level drug dealers be punished? In HeymannP.B.BrownsbergerW.N. (Eds.), Drug addiction and drug policy: The struggle to control dependence (pp. 206–238). Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
4.
CaulkinsJ.P.JohnsonB.TaylorA.TaylorL.1999What drug dealers tell us about their costs of doing business. Journal of Drug Issues, 29(2), 323–340.
5.
CaulkinsJ.P.ReuterP.1998What price data tell us about drug markets. Journal of Drug Issues, 28(3), 593–612.
6.
CaulkinsJ.P.RydellC.P.SchwabeW.L.ChiesaJ.1997Mandatory minimum drug sentences: Throwing away the key or the taxpayer's money? MR-827-DPRC, Santa Monica: RAND.
7.
CaveJ.ReuterP.1988The interdictor's lot: A dynamic model of the market for drug smuggling services. N-2632-USDP, Santa Monica: RAND.
8.
ChaloupkaF.J.PaculaR.L.2000Economics and anti-health behavior: The economic analysis of substance use and abuse. In BickelW.VuchinichR. (Eds.), Reframing health behavior change with behavioral economics. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
9.
DoyleJ.K.1997Judging cumulative risk. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 27(6), 500–524.
10.
DunlapE.JohnsonB.D.1992The setting for the crack era: Macro forces, micro consequences (1960–92). Journal of Psychoactive Drugs, 24(3), 307–321.
11.
DunlapE.JohnsonB.1996Family/resources in the development of a female crack seller career: Case study of a hidden population. Journal of Drug Issues, 26(1), 177–200.
12.
DunlapE.JohnsonB.1998Gaining access to hidden populations: Strategies for gaining cooperation of sellers/dealers in ethnographic research. Rockville, Maryland: National Institute on Drug Abuse Research Monograph.
13.
EveringhamS.S.RydellC.P.1994Modeling the demand for cocaine, MR-332-ONDCP/A/DPRC, Santa Monica: RAND.
14.
FishbeinD.2000Neuropsychological function, drug abuse, and violence: A conceptual framework. Criminal Justice & Behavior, (27), 139–159.
15.
FischhoffB.SlovicP.LichtensteinS.1978Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception & Performance, 4(2), 330–344.
16.
FrederickS.LoewensteinG.1999Hedonic adaptation. In KahnemanD.DienerE.SchwarzN. (Eds.), Well-being: The foundations of hedonic psychology. New York: Russell Sage.
17.
FreemanR.B.1995The labor market. In WilsonJ.Q.PetersiliaJ. (Eds.), Crime. San Francisco: Institute for Contemporary Studies.
18.
FriedmanM.1989An open letter to Bill Bennett. The Wall Street Journal, September 7.
19.
GottfredsonM.R.HirschiT.1990A general theory of crime. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
20.
JacobsenC.HannemanR. A.1992Illegal drugs: Past, present and possible futures. Journal of Drug Issues, 22, 105–120.
21.
KahnemanD.TverskyA.1974Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124–1131.
22.
KahnemanD.TverskyA.1979Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47, 263–291.
23.
KahnemanD.TverskyA. (Eds.) 2000Choices, values and frames. New York: Cambridge University Press.
24.
KimI.BensonB.L.RasmussenD.W.ZuehlkeT.W.1993An economic analysis of recidivism among drug offenders. Southern Economic Journal, 60(July), 169–183.
25.
KnollC.ZubaD.2002Modeling the U.S. cocaine epidemic: Dynamic trajectories of initiation and demand. Masters Thesis. Department of Operations Research and Systems Theory, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna.
26.
KleimanM.A.R.1989Marijuana: Costs of abuse, costs of control. New York: Greenwood Press.
27.
KleimanM.A.R.1992Against excess: Drug policy for results. New York: Basic Books.
28.
KleimanM.A.R.1993Enforcement swamping: A positive-feedback mechanism in rates of illicit activity. Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 17, 65–75.
29.
MacCounR.J.1993Drugs and the law: A psychological analysis of drug prohibition. Psychological Bulletin, 113, 497–512.
30.
MaguireK.PastoreA.L.1996Sourcebook of criminal justice statistics. Washington, D.C.: USGPO.
31.
MaguireK.PastoreA.L.1998Sourcebook of criminal justice statistics. Washington, D.C.: USGPO.
32.
ManskiC.PepperJ.PetrieC.2001Informing America's policy on illegal drugs: What we don't know keeps hurting us. Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences.
33.
McGrawK.M.1985Subjective probabilities and moral judgments. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, (6), 501–518.
34.
OfirC.2000Ease of recall vs. recalled evidence in judgment: Experts vs. laymen. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 81, 28–42.
35.
Office of National Drug Control Policy1999The national drug control strategy. Washington, D.C.: The White House.
36.
PaternosterR.1987The deterrent effect of the perceived certainty and severity of punishment: A review of the evidence and issues. Justice Quarterly, 4, 173–217.
37.
PetersiliaJ.1990When probation becomes more dreaded than prison. Federal Probation, 54, 23–27.
38.
PrelecD.2000Compound invariant weighting functions in prospect theory. In KahnemanD.TverkyA. (Eds.), Choices, values, and frames. New York: Cambridge University Press.
39.
RaiffaH.1968Decision analysis: Introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty. Addison-Wesley.
40.
RasmussenD.W.BensonB.L.1994The economic anatomy of a drug war. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.
41.
ReuterP.1983Disorganized crime: The economics of the visible hand. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
42.
ReuterP.1991On the consequences of toughness. In KraussM.LazearE. (Eds.), The search for alternatives (pp. 138–162). Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press.
43.
ReuterP.KleimanM.A.R.1986Risks and prices: An economic analysis of drug enforcement. In TonryM.MorrisN. (Eds.), Crime and justice: Vol. 7. An annual review of research (pp. 289–340). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
44.
ReuterP.MacCounR.MurphyP.1990Money from crime: A study of the economics of drug dealing in Washington, D.C. Santa Monica: RAND.
45.
RydellC.P.EveringhamS.S.1994Controlling cocaine. Supply versus demand programs. Santa Monica: RAND.
46.
SamuelsonP.A. (1973). Economics, Ninth Edition. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company.
47.
SimonH.A.1957Models of man: Social and rational. New York: Wiley.
48.
SvensonO.1981Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?Acta Psychologica, 47, 143–148.
49.
TverskyA.KahnemanD.1992Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 297–323.
50.
WeinsteinN.D.1980Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 806–820.
51.
WeinsteinN.D.KleinW.M.1996Unrealistic optimism: Present and future. Journal of Social & Clinical Psychology, 15(1), 1–8.
52.
ZuckermanM.1979Attribution of success and failure revisited: The motivational bias is alive and well in attribution theory. Journal of Personality, 47, 245–287.