Estimation of Heroin Prevalence in Michigan Using Capture-Recapture and Heroin Problem Index Methods

Abstract

Valid estimates of illicit drug use prevalence are essential for substance abuse treatment and prevention services planning. This study utilizes capture-recapture and heroin problem index methods to estimate heroin use prevalence for specific geographic areas and time periods in Michigan and compares the estimates with those obtained from a previous study that utilized an identical methodology as well as with estimates from an adult household telephone survey. The results show significant increases in heroin use in Michigan and in the city of Detroit from 1975 to 1992. The results also demonstrate that estimates of heroin use prevalence from capture-recapture and heroin problem index methods provide much higher estimates of heroin use than can be obtained from surveys alone and better agreement with known numbers from administrative records. Capture-recapture and heroin problem index methods are useful in the prevalence estimation of heroin use and possibly other illicit drug use, such as cocaine or crack, which may be underestimated in surveys.