This article offers a systemic and dynamic model of the spread of civil and interstate war. The model is based on three components: transmission mechanisms, barriers, and resource constraints. Trasmission mechanisms and barriers are based on our existing notions about the contagious effects of alliances and borders. Resource constraints are designed to capture the social welfare trade-off associated with military spending. Deductions from the model include a positive equilibrium value for the amount of war and the level of resources devoted to war fighting and preparations, the finding that additional transmission mechanisms increase the equilibrium level as well as the speed at which the equilibrium level is approached, and the conclusion that extraordinarily high levels of war will eventually decrease. Recommendations for decreasing a high-war equilibrium focus on the strengths of constraints relative to barriers.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Altfeld, Michael , and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. 1979. Choosing sides in war. International Studies Quarterly23:87-112.
2.
Boulding, Kenneth . 1962. Conflict and defense. New York: Harper & Row.
3.
Bremer, Stuart . 1982. The contagiousness of coercion: The spread of serious international disputes, 1900-1976. International Interactions9:29-55.
4.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce . 1981. The war trap. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
5.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce , and David Lalman. 1992. War and reason. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
6.
Coleman, James . 1964. Introduction to mathematical sociology. London: Free Press.
7.
Davis, William , George Duncan, and Randolph Siverson. 1978. The dynamics of warfare. American Journal of Political Science22:772-792.
8.
Diehl, Paul , and Gary Goertz. 1988. Territorial changes and militarized conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution32:103-122.
9.
Faber, Jan , Henk Houweling, and Jan Siccama. 1984. Diffusion of war: Some theoretical considerations and empirical evidence. Journal of Peace Research21:277-288.
10.
Gartner, Scott Sigmund , and Gary M. Segura. 1998. War, casualties, and public opinion. Journal of Conflict Resolution42:278-300.
11.
Gartner, Scott Sigmund , Gary M. Segura, and Michael Wilkening. 1997. All politics are local: Local losses and individual attitudes toward the Vietnam War. Journal of Conflict Resolution41:669-694.
12.
Goertz, Gary . 1994. Contts of international politics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
13.
Happe, Nancy , and John Wakeman-Linn. 1994. Military expenditure and arms trade: Alternative data sources, part I. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy1:3-38.
14.
Houweling, Henk , and Jan Siccama. 1985. The epidemiology of war, 1816-1980. Journal of Conflict Resolution29:641-663.
15.
Klingberg . 1966. Predicting the termination of war: Battle casualties and population losses. Journal of Conflict Resolution10:129-171.
16.
Lake, David , and Patrick Morgan. 1997. Regional orders: Building security in a new world. University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press.
17.
Levy, Jack . 1981. Alliance formation and war behavior: An analysis of the great powers, 1495-1975. Journal of Conflict Resolution25:581-613.
18.
Levy, Jack . 1982. The contagion of great power war behavior: An analysis of the great powers, 1495-1975. American Journal of Political Science26:562-584.
19.
Mesterton-Gibbons, Michael . 1989. A concrete approach to mathematical modelling. Redwood City, CA: Addison Wesley.
20.
Morgan, T. Clifton , and Valerie Schwebach. 1992. Take two democracies and call me in the morning: A prescription for peace?International Interactions17:305-320.
21.
Most, Benjamin , and Harvey Starr. 1980. Diffusion, reinforcement, and geo-politics and the spread of war. American Political Science Review74:932-946.
22.
Most, Benjamin , Harvey Starr, and Randolph Siverson. 1989. The logic and study of the diffusion of international conflict. In The handbook of war studies, edited by Manus Midlarsky, 111-139. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
23.
Organski, Kenneth , and Jacek Kugler. 1980. The war ledger. Chicago: Chicago University Press.
24.
Richardson, Lewis F. 1960. Statistics of deadly quarrels. Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press.
25.
Rosen, Steven . 1972. War power and the willingness to suffer. In Peace, war, and numbers, edited by Bruce Russett, 167-183. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
26.
Sabrosky, Alan . 1980. Interstate alliances: Their reliability and the expansion of war. In The Correlates of War II: Testing some realpolitik models, edited by J. David Singer, 161-198. New York: Free Press.
27.
Singer, J. David , and Melvin Small. 1966. Formal alliances, 1815-1939. Journal of Peace Research3:1-32.
28.
Siverson, Randolph , and Harvey Starr. 1991. The diffusion of war: A study of opportunity and willingness. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
29.
Sorokin, Gerald . 1994. Arms, alliances, and security tradeoffs in enduring rivalries. International Studies Quarterly38:421-446.
30.
Sprout, Harold , and Margaret Sprout. 1969. Environmental factors in the study of international politics. In International politics and foreign policy, edited by James Rosenau. New York: Free Press.
31.
Starr, Harvey , and Benjamin Most. 1976. The substance and study of borders in international relations research. International Studies Quarterly20:581-620.
32.
Wallace, Michael . 1973. Alliance polarization, cross-cutting and international war, 1815-1964. Journal of Conflict Resolution17:576-604.
33.
Yamamoto, Yoshinobu , and Stuart Bremer. 1980. Wider wars and restless nights: Major power intervention in ongoing war. In The Correlates of War II, edited by J. David Singer, 199-229. New York: Free Press.
