This study examines the relationships among cultural factors, contiguity, and the onset of interstate war. These concerns are nested within a larger debate about “ethnic conflict” that assumes the salience of cultural variables in interstate conflict. Arguing that much of the research on ethnic conflict assumes rather than demonstrates the salience of cultural factors on conflict, the analysis is grounded in a comparison of the relative weight of ethnic and religious similarity among state dyads in predicting the frequency of interstate war. A logit regression is specified and tested for pairs of states in the system from 1820 to 1989. Controlling for contiguity, ethnic similarity has a direct association with war, whereas religious dissimilarity is inversely correlated with war. Cultural variables are neither monolithic nor unidirectional in their impact on conflict. Scholars should eschew the promulgation of problematic categories such as ethnic conflict and instead move toward systematically determining the salience of ethnic and religious factors in international conflict.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Aldrich, J. , and F. Nelson. 1984. Linear probability, logit, and probit models. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
2.
Anderson, B. 1983. Imagined communities: Reflections on the origin and spread of nationalism. London: Verso.
3.
Banac, I.1992. The fearful asymmetry of war: The causes and consequences of Yugoslavia's demise. Daedalus121:141-174.
4.
Bozeman, A. 1971. Conflict in Africa: Concepts and realities. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
5.
Bremer, S.1992. Dangerous dyads: Conditions affecting the likelihood of interstate war, 1816-1965. Journal of Conflict Resolution36:309-341.
6.
Brown, M. 1994. Causes and implications of ethnic conflict. In Ethnic conflict and international security, edited by M. Brown, 3-26. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
7.
Bueno de Mesquita, B. 1981. The war trap. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
8.
Carment, D.1993. The international dimensions of ethnic conflict: Concepts, indicators, and theory. Journal of Peace Research30:137-150.
9.
Carment, D. , and P. James. 1995. Internal constraints and interstate ethnic conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution39:82-109.
10.
Chai, S.1996. A theory of ethnic group boundaries. Nations and Nationalism2:281-307.
11.
Destexhe, A.1994. The third genocide. Foreign Policy97 (Winter): 3-17.
12.
Diehl, P.1985. Contiguity and military escalation in major power rivalries, 1816-1980. Journal of Politics47:1203-1211.
13.
Fearon, J. , and D. Laitin. 1996. Explaining interethnic cooperation. American Political Science Review90:715-735.
14.
Gagnon, V. 1995. Ethnic nationalism and international conflict. In Global dangers: Changing dimensions of international security, edited by S. Lynn-Jones and S. Miller, 331-367. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
15.
Gleditsch, N. , and J. D. Singer. 1975. Distance and international war, 1816-1965. In Proceedings of the International Peace Research Association (pp. 481-506). Oslo, Norway.
16.
Gurr, T.1994. People against states: Ethnopolitical conflict and the changing world system. International Studies Quarterly38:347-378.
17.
Gurr, T. , and B. Harff. 1994a. Conceptual, research, and policy issues in early warning research: An overview. Journal of Ethno-Development4 (1): 3-14.
18.
Gurr, T. , and B. Harff. 1994b. Ethnic conflict in world politics. Boulder, CO: Westview.
19.
Hobsbawm, E. 1995. Nations and nationalism since 1780. 2nd ed.Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
20.
Holsti, K. 1991. Peace and war: Armed conflicts and international order 1648-1989. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
21.
Hunt, M. 1987. Ideology and U.S. foreign policy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
22.
Huntington, S.1993. The clash of civilizations. Foreign Affairs72 (3): 22-49.
23.
Huth, P.1996. Enduring rivalries and territorial disputes, 1950-1990. Conflict Management and Peace Science15 (1): 7-41.
24.
Kegley, C. , and E. Wittkopf. 1995. World politics, trend and transformation. 5th ed.New York: St. Martin's.
25.
Lawson, S. 1995. The politics of culture: Critical issues for comparative and international studies. Paper presented at the annual conference of the International Studies Association, Chicago, April.
26.
LeVine, R. , and D. Campbell. 1972. Ethnocentrism: Theories of conflict, ethnic attitudes, and group behavior. New York: John Wiley.
McClintock, C. 1992. Communal strife in Peru: A case of absence of spillover into the international arena. In The internationalization of communal strife, edited by M. Midlarsky, 209-232. New York: Routledge.
29.
Merton, R. 1957. Social theory and social structure. Glencoe, IL: Free Press.
30.
Pfaff, W.1993. Invitation to war: Conflict in the Balkans. Foreign Affairs72 (3): 97-109.
31.
Posen, B. 1993. The security dilemma and ethnic conflict. In Ethnic conflict and international security, edited by M. Brown, 103-124. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
32.
Posen, B. 1995. Nationalism, the mass army, and military power. In Global dangers: Changing dimensions of international security, edited by S. Lynn-Jones and S. Miller, 286-330. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
33.
Potter, D. 1968. The South and the sectional crisis. Baton Rouge: University of Louisiana Press.
34.
Regan, P.1996. Conditions of successful third-party intervention in intrastate conflicts. Journal of Conflict Resolution40:336-359.
35.
Richardson, L. 1960. Statistics of deadly quarrels. Pittsburgh, PA: Boxwood.
36.
Roncek, D.1991. Using logit coefficients to obtain the effects of independent variables on changes in probabilities. Social Forces70:509-518.
37.
Rothschild, J. 1981. Ethnopolitics: A conceptual framework. New York: Columbia University Press.
38.
Schlichte, K.1994. Is ethnicity a cause of war?Peace Review6 (1): 59-65.
39.
Singer, J. D.1981. Accounting for international war: The state of the discipline. Journal of Peace Research18 (1): 37-48.
40.
Singer, J. D. 1993. Interest, identities, and militarized disputes. Paper presented at the Conference on Enduring Rivalries, Bloomington, IN, March.
41.
Singer, J. D.1994. Early warning indicators for cultural groups in danger. Journal of Ethno-Development4:105-110.
42.
Singer, J. D. 1996. Cultural composition of interstate system members. Correlates of War project data. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, Department of Political Science.
43.
Small, M. , and J. D. Singer. 1982. Resort to arms: International and civil wars, 1816-1980. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
44.
Smith, A. 1994. The ethnic sources of nationalism. In Ethnic conflict and international security, edited by M. Brown, 27-41. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
45.
Starr, H. , and B. Most. 1978. A return journey. Journal of Conflict Resolution22:441-468.
46.
Stavenhagen, R. 1990. The ethnic question. Tokyo: United Nations University Press.
47.
Strange, S. 1983. Cave! Hic dragones: A critique of regime analysis. In International regimes, edited by S. Krasner, 337-354. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
48.
Sumner, W. 1906. Folkways. New York: Ginn.
49.
Surkhe, A. , and L. G. Noble, eds. 1977. Ethnic conflict in international relations. New York: Praeger.
50.
Vasquez, J.1987. The steps to war: Towards a scientific explanation of Correlates of War findings. World Politics40:108-145.
51.
Vasquez, J. 1992. Factors related to the contagion and diffusion of international violence. In The internationalization of communal strife, edited by M. Midlarsky, 149-172. New York: Routledge.
52.
Vasquez, J. 1993. The war puzzle. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
53.
Wilkenfeld, J. , and M. Brecher. 1994. The ethnopolitical dimension of international crises: A preliminary mapping. Journal of Ethno-Development4 (1): 56-64.
