A number of studies of crisis behavior assume that political behavior goes through a series of clear phases characterized by distinct patterns of interactions. Correct identification of these phases is important in crisis forecasting and in the application of mediation techniques such as preventive diplomacy. To date, empirical work with these data sets has identified crisis phases contextually (by human coders) rather than through any systematic procedures. This study uses several statistical techniques to identify and analyze phases in an event data set measuring the political behavior between eight Middle Eastern actors for the period July 1979 to June 1995, and concludes with observations on how these analytic approaches might be applied to the problem of crisis early warning.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Aldenderfer, Mark S. , and Roger K. Blashfield. 1984. Cluster analysis. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
2.
Alker, Hayward , Ted Robert Gurr, and Kumar Rupesinghe. 1995. Conflict early warning systems: An initial research program. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Chicago, February.
3.
Andriole, Stephen J. , and Gerald W. Hopple. 1984. The rise and fall of events data: From basic research to applied use in the U.S. Department of Defense. International Interactions11:293-309.
4.
Azar, Edward E. , and Joseph Ben-Dak. 1975. Theory and practice of events research. New York: Gordon and Breach.
5.
Azar, Edward E. , Richard A. Brody, and Charles A. McClelland, eds. 1972. International events interaction analysis: Some research considerations. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
6.
Bailey, Kenneth D. 1994. Typologies and taxonomies: An introduction to classification techniques. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
7.
Bloomfield, Lincoln P. , and Amelia C. Leiss. 1969. Controlling small wars. New York: Knopf.
8.
Bloomfield, Lincoln P. , and Allen Moulton. 1989. CASCON III: Computer-aided system for analysis of local conflicts. Cambridge, MA: MIT Center for International Studies.
9.
Bloomfield, Lincoln P. , and Allen Moulton. 1997. Managing international conflict. New York: St. Martin's.
10.
Boutros-Ghali, Boutros. 1994. Strengthening of the coordination of emergency humanitarian assistance of the United Nations. Secretary-General's Report to the General Assembly A/49/177, September.
11.
Burgess, Philip M. , and Raymond W. Lawton. 1972. Indicators of international behavior: An assessment of events data research. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
12.
Butterworth, Robert Lyle . 1976. Managing interstate conflict, 1945-74: Data with synopses. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh University Center for International Studies.
13.
Cahill, Kevin M. , ed. 1996. Preventive diplomacy: The therapeutics of mediation. New York: Basic Books.
14.
Choucri, Nazli , and Thomas W. Robinson, eds. 1979. Forecasting in international relations: Theory, methods, problems, prospects. San Francisco: W. H. Freeman.
15.
Crocker, Chester , and Fen Osler Hampson, eds. 1996. Managing global chaos: Sources of and responses to international conflict. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.
16.
Daly, Judith Ayres , and Stephen J. Andriole. 1980. The use of events/interaction research by the intelligence community. Policy Sciences12:215-236.
17.
Dedring, Jürgen . 1994. Early warning and the United Nations. Journal of Ethno-Development4:98-105.
18.
Dixon, William J.1986. Reciprocity in United States-Soviet relations: Multiple symmetry or issue linkage. American Journal of Political Science30:421-445.
19.
Doran, C. F. , R. E. Pendley, and G. E. Antunes. 1973. A test of cross-national event reliability. International Studies Quarterly17:175-203.
20.
Everitt, Brian . 1980. Cluster analysis, 2d ed.New York: Wiley/Halsted.
21.
Gaddis, John Lewis . 1992. The United States and the end of the cold war. New York: Oxford University Press.
22.
Gerner, Deborah J. , Philip A. Schrodt, Ronald A. Francisco, and Judith L. Weddle. 1994. The machine coding of events from regional and international sources. International Studies Quarterly38:91-119.
23.
Goldstein, Joshua S.1992. A conflict-cooperation scale for WEIS events data. Journal of Conflict Resolution36:369-385.
24.
Goldstein, Joshua S. , and John R. Freeman. 1990. Three-way street: Strategic reciprocity in world politics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
25.
Gurr, Ted R. , and Barbara Harff. 1994. Conceptual, research and policy issues in early warning research: An overview. Journal of Ethno-Development4(1):3-15.
26.
Gurr, Ted R. , and Barbara Harff. 1996. Early warning of communal conflict and humanitarian crisis. Monograph Series on Governance and Conflict Resolution. Tokyo: United Nations University Press.
27.
Hopple, Gerald W. 1984. Computer-based early-warning: A staircase display option for international affairs crisis projection and monitoring. National security crisis forecasting and management, edited by Gerald W. Hopple, Stephen J. Andriole, and Amos Freedy, 47-84. Boulder, CO: Westview.
28.
Hopple, Gerald W. , Stephen J. Andriole, and Amos Freedy, eds. 1984. National security crisis forecasting and management. Boulder, CO: Westview.
29.
Howell, Llewellyn D. , and Gillian Barnes. 1993. Event data for region-specific interactions: A research note on source coverage. In International event-data developments: DDIR phase II, edited by Richard L. Merritt, Robert G. Muncaster, and Dina A. Zinnes, 45-54. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
30.
Huxtable, Philip A. , and Jon C. Pevehouse. 1996. Potential validity problems in events data collection. International Studies Notes21:8-19.
31.
Kim, Jae-On , and Charles W. Mueller. 1978. Factor analysis: Statistical methods and practical issues. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
32.
King, Dennis . 1996. ReliefWeb: A new information management tool for the international humanitarian community. Paper presented at the conference on Risk Assessment and Early Warning Systems, University of Maryland at College Park, November.
33.
Klecka, William R. 1980. Discriminant analysis. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
34.
Laurance, Edward J.1990. Events data and policy analysis. Policy Sciences23:111-132.
35.
Leatherman, Janie , and Raimo Väyrynen. 1995. Structure, culture and territory: Three sets of early warning indicators. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Chicago, February.
36.
Lund, Michael S. 1996. Preventing violent conflicts: A strategy for preventive diplomacy. Washington, DC: United States Institute for Peace Press.
37.
McClelland, Charles A. 1976. World event/interaction survey codebook. ICPSR 5211. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.
38.
Merritt, Richard L. , Robert G. Muncaster, and Dina A. Zinnes. 1993. Event data and DDIR. In International event-data developments: DDIR phase II, edited by Richard L. Merritt, Robert G. Muncaster, and Dina A. Zinnes, 1-18. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
39.
Mizuno, Jiro . 1995. Humanitarian early warning system: Progress and prospects. United Nations: Department of Humanitarian Affairs.
40.
Munton, Donald . 1978. Measuring international behavior: Public sources, events and validity. Halifax, Nova Scotia: Dalhousie University, Centre for Foreign Policy Studies
41.
Norusis, Marija J. 1994. SPSS professional statistics 6.1. Chicago: SPSS, Inc.
42.
Peterson, Sophia . 1975. Research on research: Events data studies, 1961-1972. In Sage international yearbook on foreign policy studies 3, edited by Patrick J. McGowan, 263-309. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
43.
Rupesinghe, Kumar , and Michiko Kuroda, eds. 1992. Early warning and conflict resolution. New York: St. Martin's.
44.
Schmeidl, Susanne . 1997. From root cause to preventive diplomacy: Possibilities and limitations of the early warning of forced migration. Westport, CT: Praeger.
45.
Schrodt, Philip A. 1995. Event data in foreign policy analysis. In Foreign policy analysis: Continuity and change, edited by Laura Neack, Jeanne A. K. Hey, and Patrick J. Haney, 145-166. New York: Prentice Hall.
46.
Schrodt, Philip A. , Shannon G. Davis, and Judith L. Weddle. 1994. Political science: KEDS—A program for the machine coding of event data. Social Science Computer Review12:561-588.
47.
Schrodt, Philip A. , and Deborah J. Gerner. 1994. Validity assessment of a machine-coded event data set for the Middle East, 1982-1992. American Journal of Political Science38:825-854.
48.
Schrodt, Philip A. , and Deborah J. Gerner. 1995. Empirical indicators of crisis phase in the Middle East, 1979-1995. Paper presented at the 29th North American meeting of the Peace Science Society, Columbus, Ohio, October.
49.
Sherman, Frank L. , and Laura Neack. 1993. Imagining the possibilities: The prospects of isolating the genome of international conflict from the SHERFACS dataset. In International event-data developments: DDIR phase II, edited by Richard L. Merritt, Robert G. Muncaster, and Dina A. Zinnes, 87-112. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
50.
Singer, J. David , and Michael D. Wallace, eds. 1979. To augur well: Early warning indicators in world politics. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
51.
Ward, Michael Don . 1982. Cooperation and conflict in foreign policy behavior. International Studies Quarterly26:87-126.
