We present a model suggesting that international conflicts escalate to violence when countries (a) express higher levels of power motive imagery, (b) exaggerate levels of perceived power motive imagery in communications and statements from the “other” side, and (c) express still higher levels of power motive imagery as a result of such exaggerated perceptions. The model is supported by three studies. In the first two, participants wrote replies to one of two versions of the same letter taken from a real crisis. The third study explored conditions that affect the exaggerated perception of power motive imagery of the other side by asking participants to highlight the important points of a letter from a real crisis, under neutral conditions and under conditions arousing power motivation. The role of psychological variables in the escalation of conflicts to violence is discussed.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Alani, M. M. 1990. Operation vantage: British military intervention in Kuwait 1961. Surbiton, England: LAAM.
2.
Angell, N. 1910. The great illusion: A study of the relation of military power in nations to their economic and social advantage. London: Heinemann.
3.
Blake, R. R. , and J. S. Mouton. 1962. Comprehension of own and outgroup positions under intergroup competition. Journal of Conflict Resolution5:304-310.
4.
Blight, J. G. , and D. A. Welch. 1989. On the brink: Americans and Soviets reexamine the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: Hill and Wang.
5.
Brockner, J. , and J. Z. Rubin. 1985. Entrapment in escalating conflicts: A social psychological analysis. New York: Springer-Verlag.
6.
Choucri, N. , and R. C. North. 1975. Nations in conflict. San Francisco: Freeman.
7.
Clausewitz, K. von . [1831] 1962. War, politics, and power. Edited by E. M. Collins. New York: Henry Regnery (Gateway Editions).
8.
Davies, J. C. 1969. The J-curve of rising and declining satisfactions as a cause of some great revolutions and a contained rebellion. In The history of violence in America, edited by H. D. Graham and T. R. Gurr, 690-729. New York: Bantam Books.
9.
Dyck, R. J. , and B. G. Rule. 1978. Effect on retaliation of causal attributions concerning attack. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology36:521-529.
10.
Eiser, J. R. 1980. Cognitive social psychology. London: McGraw-Hill.
11.
Frank, J. D. 1986. The role of pride. In Psychology and the prevention of nuclear war, edited by R. K. White, 220-226. New York: New York University Press.
12.
Freud, S. [1933] 1964. On war. In The standard edition of the complete psychological works of Sigmund Freud. Ed. and Trans. J. Strachey. Vol. 22, 197-215. London: Hogarth Press.
13.
George, A. L. , ed. 1991. Avoiding war: Problems of crisis management. Boulder, CO: Westview.
14.
Glad, B. , ed. 1990. Psychological dimensions of war. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
15.
Groebel, J. , and R. A. Hinde., eds. 1989. Aggression and war: Their biological and social causes. New York: Cambridge University Press.
16.
Hermann, M. G.1980a. Assessing the personalities of Soviet Politburo members. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin6:332-352.
17.
Hermann, M. G.1980b. Explaining foreign policy behavior using personal characteristics of political leaders. International Studies Quarterly24:7-46.
18.
Holsti, O. 1972. Crisis, escalation, war. Montreal: McGill University Press.
19.
Holsti, O. R. , R. C. North, and R. A. Brody. 1968. Perception and action in the 1914 crisis. In Quantitative international politics: Insights and evidence, edited by J. D. Singer, 123-158. New York: Free Press.
20.
Hovland, C. I. , and M. Sherif. 1952. Judgmental phenomena and scales of attitude measurement: Item displacement in Thurstone scales. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology47:822-832.
21.
Jarausch, K. H. 1973. The enigmatic chancellor: Bethmann-Hollweg and the hubris of imperial Germany. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
22.
Jervis, R. 1976. Perception and misperception in international relations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
23.
Joll, J. 1968. 1914: The unspoken assumptions. London: Wedenfeld and Nicolson.
24.
Klein, M. W. , and N. Maccoby. 1954. Newspaper activity in the 1952 campaign. Journalism Quarterly31:285-296.
25.
Komorita, S. S. , J. A. Hilty, and C. D. Parks. 1991. Reciprocity and cooperation in social dilemmas. Journal of Conflict Resolution35:494-518.
26.
Leng, R. J.1993. Reciprocating influence strategies in interstate crisis bargaining. Journal of Conflict Resolution37:3-41.
27.
Leng, R. J. , and S. G. Walker. 1982. Comparing two studies of crisis bargaining: Confrontation, coercion, and reciprocity. Journal of Conflict Resolution26:571-591.
28.
Leng, R. J. , and H. G. Wheeler. 1979. Influence strategies, success, and war. Journal of Conflict Resolution23:655-684.
29.
McAdams, D. P. 1985. Power, intimacy and the life story. Homewood, IL: Dorsey.
30.
McCalla, R. B. 1992. Uncertain perceptions: U.S. Cold War crisis decision making. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
31.
McClelland, D. C. 1975. Power: The inner experience. New York: Irvington.
32.
McClelland, D. C. 1976. The achieving society (with a new introduction). New York: Irvington.
33.
McClelland, D. C. 1985. Human motivation. New York: Cambridge University Press.
34.
McClelland, D. C. , R. J. Davidson, and C. Saron. 1980. Effects of personality and semantic content of stimuli on augmenting and reducing in the event-related potential. Biological Psychology11:249-255.
35.
McClelland, D. C. , R. J. Davidson, C. Saron, and E. Floor. 1980. The need for power, brain norepinephrine turnover, and learning. Biological Psychology10:93-102.
36.
Murray, H. A. 1938. Explorations in personality. New York: Oxford University Press.
37.
Nelson, K. L. , and S. C. Olin. 1979. Why war? Ideology, theory, and history. Berkeley: University of California Press.
38.
Neustadt, R. E. , and E. R. May. 1986. Thinking in time: The uses of history for decision-makers. New York: Free Press.
39.
Nevin, J. A. , and K. Fuld. 1993. On armament traps and how to get out of them: Lessons from research on doves. Behavior and Social Issues3:63-74.
40.
Rule, B. G. , and P. Duker. 1973. Effects of intentions and consequences on children's evaluations of aggressors. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology27:184-189.
41.
Schmookler, A. B. 1984. The parable of the tribes: The problem of power in social evolution. Berkeley: University of California Press.
42.
Schnackers, U. , and U. Kleinbeck. 1975. Machmotiv und machtthematisches Verhalten in einem Verhandlungsspiel [Power motivation and power-related behavior in a bargaining game]. Archiv fuer Psychologie127:300-319.
43.
Singer, J. D. 1989. The political origins of international war: A multifactorial review. In Aggression and war: Their biological and social causes, edited by J. Groebel and R. A. Hinde, 202-220. New York: Cambridge University Press.
44.
Smith, C. P. , ed. 1992. Motivation and personality: Handbook of thematic content analysis. New York: Cambridge University Press.
45.
Smith, C. P. , S. C. Feld, and C. E. Franz. 1992. Methodological considerations: Steps in research employing content analysis systems. In Motivation and personality: Handbook of thematic content analysis, edited by C. P. Smith, 515-536. New York: Cambridge University Press.
46.
Sorenson, T. C. 1965. Kennedy. New York: Harper and Row.
47.
Steele, R. S.1977. Power motivation, activation, and inspirational speeches. Journal of Personality45:53-64.
48.
Stewart, A. J. , and N. L. Chester. 1982. Sex differences in human social motives: Achievement, affiliation, and power. In Motivation and society, edited by A. J. Stewart, 172-218. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
49.
Stewart, A. J. , and D. G. Winter. 1976. Arousal of the power motive in women. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology44:495-496.
50.
Suedfeld, P.1992. Bilateral relations between countries and the complexity of newspaper editorials. Political Psychology13:601-611.
51.
Suedfeld, P. , and S. Bluck. 1988. Changes in integrative complexity prior to surprise attacks. Journal of Conflict Resolution32:626-635.
52.
Suefeld, P. , and P. E. Tetlock. 1977. Integrative complexity of communications in international crises. Journal of Conflict Resolution21:169-184.
53.
Suefeld, P. , P. E. Tetlock, and C. Ramirez. 1977. War, peace, and integrative complexity: UN speeches on the Middle East problem, 1947-1976. Journal of Conflict Resolution21:427-442.
54.
Suefeld, P. , P. E. Tetlock, and S. Streufert. 1992. Conceptual/integrative complexity. In Motivation and personality: Handbook of thematic content analysis, edited by C. P. Smith, 393-400. New York: Cambridge University Press.
55.
Tajfel, H. 1981. Human groups and social categories. New York: Cambridge University Press.
56.
Teger, A. , M. Cary, A. Katcher, and J. Hillis. 1980. Too much invested to quit. New York: Pergamon.
57.
Terhune, K. W.1968. Motives, situation, and interpersonal conflict within prisoners' dilemma. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology Monograph Supplement8(3), part 2.
58.
Tetlock, P. E.1988. Monitoring the integrative complexity of American and Soviet policy rhetoric: What can be learned?Journal of Social Issues44(2): 101-131.
59.
Tetlock, P. E. , and A.S.R. Manstead. 1985. Impression management versus intrapsychic explanations in social psychology: A useful dichotomy?Psychological Review92:59-77.
60.
Tetlock, P. E. , R. S. Peterson, and J. M. Berry. 1993. Flattering and unflattering personality portraits of integratively simple and complex managers. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology64:500-511.
61.
U.S. Department of Commerce. 1990, August 22. Open letter from Saddam Hussein to George Bush, on August 21, 1990 (pp. 26-7). Foreign Broadcast Information Services.
62.
U.S. Department of State . 1973. Bulletin (vol. 69, pp. 640-643). November 19.
63.
Watt, D. C. 1965. The Kuwait incident. In Survey of international affairs 1961, edited by D. C. Watt, 519-545. London: Oxford University Press.
64.
Weiner, B. 1985. Human motivation. New York: Springer-Verlag.
65.
White, R. K. 1984. Fearful warriors: A psychological profile of U.S.-Soviet relations. New York: Free Press.
66.
Wicker, F. W. , F. B. Lambert, F. C. Richardson, and J. Kohler. 1984. Categorical goal hierarchies and classification of human motives. Journal of Personality52:285-305.
67.
Wiggins, J. S. 1980. Circumplex models of interpersonal behavior. In Review of Personality and Social Psychology Vol. 1, edited by L. Wheeler, 265-294. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
68.
Winter, D. G. 1973. The power motive. New York: Free Press.
69.
Winter, D. G.1980. Measuring the motive patterns of southern Africa political leaders at a distance. Political Psychology2(2): 75-85.
70.
Winter, D. G.1987a. Enhancement of enemy's power motivation as a dynamic of escalation in conflict situations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology52:41-46.
71.
Winter, D. G. 1987b. Power motive distortion in British and German newspapers and diplomatic dispatches at the outbreak of World War I. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Eastern Psychological Association, April, in Arlington, VA.
72.
Winter, D. G.1988. The power motive in women—and men. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology54:510-519.
73.
Winter, D. G. 1991a. Measuring personality at a distance: Development of an integrated system for scoring motives in running text. In Perspectives in personality: Approaches to understanding lives, edited by A. J. Stewart, J. M. Healy, Jr., and D. J. Ozer, 59-89. London: Jessica Kingsley.
74.
Winter, D. G. 1991b. Power motivation, attributed power motivation, and war. Paper presented at the Sixth Personality Theory Conference, California School of Professional Psychology, April 6, in Alhambra, CA.
75.
Winter, D. G. 1992a. Content analysis of archival data, personal documents, and everyday verbal productions. In Motivation and personality: Handbook of thematic content analysis, edited by C. P. Smith, 110-125. New York: Cambridge University Press.
76.
Winter, D. G. 1992b. Personality and foreign policy: Historical overview of research. In Political psychology and foreign policy, edited by E. Singer and V. Harper, 79-101. Boulder, CO: Westview.
77.
Winter, D. G. 1993a. Exploring the Psychological Roots of War and Peace: Motivation, Responsibility, and Cognitive Complexity in “War” and “Peace” Crises. Project proposal to the United States Institute of Peace (Grant 046-92S). University of Michigan, Department of Psychology.
78.
Winter, D. G.1993b. Power, affiliation and war: Three tests of a motivational model. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology65:532-545.
79.
Winter, D. G. 1994. Power motive distortion in “war” versus “peace” crises: Britain and Germany at the outbreak of World War I and the Cuban Missile Crisis. Unpublished Paper, University of Michigan.
80.
Winter, D. G. , and N. B. Barenbaum. 1985. Responsibility and the power motive in women and men. Journal of Personality53:335-355.
81.
Winter, D. G. , and A. J. Stewart. 1978. The power motive. In Dimensions of personality, edited by H. London and J. Exner, 391-447. New York: Wiley.
82.
Youngs, G. A.1986. Patterns of threat and punishment reciprocity in a conflict setting. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology51:541-546.
83.
Zinnes, D. A. 1968. The expression and perception of hostility in prewar crisis: 1914. In Quantitative international politics: Insights and evidence, edited by J. D. Singer, 85-119. New York: Free Press.
