Shortly after Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990 and shortly before Operation Desert Storm in January 1991, Cioffi-Revilla forecast that the battle fatalities of an Iraq-United Nations war would be between 100,000 and a million or so, depending on the number of belligerents. The lower estimate presumes four states were to fight; and the higher one presumes ten states were to fight. Whatever the accuracy of the forecast, this article examines the historical reliability of the relationship on which the forecast rests. The apparent linear relationship between the extent and severity of great power war over 1816-1990 is illusory.
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