The probable transition from a bipolar to a multipolar international system has inspired divergent predictions about the likely consequences for global stability. This article places two recent exemplary deductive models under examination, in order to evaluate the validity of their conclusions about the alleged stability of the cold war's bipolar competitive world relative to that of multipolar systems. A review of the empirical evidence generated by inductive investigations of this relationship suggests that acceptance of the pessimistic thesis that multipolar systems are inherently unstable would be premature, and that, if intervening variables are considered, a rival, more pacific image of a future multipolar world is equally plausible.
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