The empirical literature on arms races has often failed to find strong evidence of the existence of arms races among “obvious” dyads. In this article it is argued that if we assume that decision makers use simple rules and concentrate on the weapons stock of their rivals, we can produce highly accurate models. These premises are tested by examining the size of the British navy from 1860 to 1913. The results offer support for this line of argument.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Anderton, Charles H.1989. Arms race modeling: Problems and prospects. Journal of Conflict Resolution33:346-367.
2.
Chesneau, Roger , and Eugene M. Kolesnik, eds. 1979. Conway's all the world's fighting ships, 1860-1905. New York: Mayflower Books.
3.
Choucri, Nazli , and Robert C. North. 1975. Nations in conflict: National growth and international violence. San Francisco: W. H. Freeman.
4.
Cyert, Richard M. , and James G. March. 1963. A behavioral theory of the firm. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
5.
Greene, William H. 1989. LIMDEP version 5.1. New York: Econometric Software.
6.
Hughes, Wayne P. 1986. Fleet tactics: Theory and practice. Annapolis, MD: United States Naval Institute Press.
7.
Huntington, Samuel P. [1958] 1971. Arms races: Prerequisites and results. Reprint in The use of force: International politics and foreign policy, edited by Robert Art and Kenneth Waltz, 365-401. Boston: Little, Brown.
8.
Lambelet, John C.1974. The Anglo-German Dreadnought race 1905-1914. Peace Science Society (International) Papers22:1-45.
9.
Lambelet, John C.1975. A numerical model of the Anglo-German Dreadnought race. Peace Science Society (International) Papers24:29-48.
10.
Lambelet, John C.1976. A complementary analysis of the Anglo-German Dreadnought race, 1905-1916. Peace Science Society (International) Papers26:219-266.
11.
Lavery, Brian . 1983. The ship of the line Vol. 1: The development of the battlefleet 1650-1850. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press.
12.
Lee, William T. 1977. Understanding the Soviet military threat: How C.I.A. estimates went astray. New York: National Strategy Information Center.
13.
Marder, Arthur J. 1940. The anatomy of British sea power: A history of British naval policy in the pre-Dreadnought era, 1880-1905. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
14.
Marder, Arthur J. 1961. From the Dreadnought to Scapa Flow: The royal navy in the Fisher era, 1904-1919. Vol. 1: The road to war, 1904-1914. London: Oxford University Press.
15.
Modelski, George , and William R. Thompson. 1988. Seapower in global politics, 1494-1993. London: Macmillan.
16.
Ostrom, Charles , and Robin F. Marra. 1986. U.S. defense spending and the Soviet estimate. American Political Science Review80:819-842.
17.
Parkes, Oscar . 1956. British battleships. London: Seeley Service and Company.
18.
Rapoport, Anatol . 1957. Lewis Richardson's mathematical theory of war. Journal of Conflict Resolution1:249-304.
19.
Richardson, Lewis . [1919] 1960. Arms and influence. Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press.
20.
Ward, Michael D.1984. Differential paths to parity: A study of the contemporary arms race. American Political Science Review78:297-317.
21.
Woodward, E. L. 1935. Great Britain and the German navy. Oxford: Clarendon.
