The relationship between domestic and international conflict serves as the primary focus of this article. A research approach is used that is different from that found in most previous studies. We use the international system as the unit of analysis and employ a dynamic time series research orientation. We suggest and present empirical evidence supporting the idea that the change in magnitude of domestic conflict and the change in magnitude of international conflict are intimately related in a behavioral pattern that we call the global conflict process.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Azar, E. E. (1983) “The theory of protracted social conflict and the challenge of transforming conflict situations,” pp. 81-99 in D. A. Zinnes (ed.) Conflict Processes and the Breakdown of International Systems: Merriam Seminar Series on Research Frontiers (Vol. 20, Book 2, Monograph Series in World Affairs). Denver, CO: Univ. of Denver.
2.
Azar, E. E. (1986) “Protracted international conflicts: ten propositions,” pp. 28-39 in E. E. Azar and J. W. Burton (eds.) International Conflict Resolution: Theory and Practice. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.
3.
Bueno De Mesquita, B. (1975) “Measuring systemic polarity.”J. of Conflict Resolution19 (2): 187-216.
4.
Bueno De Mesquita, B. (1980) “Theories of international conflict: an analysis and an appraisal,” pp. 361-398 in T. R. Gurr (ed.) Handbook of Political Conflict: Theory and Research. New York: Free Press.
5.
Campbell, D. T. and J. C. Stanley (1963) Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Research. Chicago: Rand McNally.
6.
Chase-Dunn, C. and J. Sokolovsky (1983) “Interstate systems, world-empires and the capitalist world-economy: a response to Thompson.”Int. Studies Q.27 (3): 357-367.
7.
Cook, T. D. and D. T. Campbell (1979) Quasi-Experiments: Design and Analysis Issues for Field Settings. Chicago: Rand McNally.
8.
Duvall, R. D. (1978) “Dependence and dependencia theory: Notes toward precision of concept and argument.”Int. Organization32 (1): 51-78.
9.
Eckstein, H. (1980) “Theoretical approaches to explaining collective political violence,” pp. 135-166 in T. R. Gurr (ed.) Handbook of Political Conflict: Theory and Research. New York: Free Press.
10.
Feierabend, I. K. , R. L. Feierabend, and B. A. Nesvold (1969) “Social change and political violence: cross-national patterns,” pp. 606-667 in H. D. Graham and T. R. Gurr (eds.) Violence in America: Historical and Comparative Perspectives. New York: Signet.
11.
Freeman, J. R. (1983) “Granger causality and time series analysis of political relationships.”Amer. J. of Pol. Sci.27: 327-358.
12.
Gillespie, J. V. and D. A. Zinnes [eds.] (1977) Mathematical Systems in International Relations Research. New York: Praeger.
13.
Guralnik, D. B. [ed.] (1977) Webster's New World Dictionary of the American Language. New York: Popular Library.
14.
Gurr, T. R. (1970) Why Men Rebel. Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press.
15.
Gurr, T. R. (1980) “On the outcomes of violent conflict,” pp. 238-294 in T. R. Gurr (ed.) Handbook of Political Conflict: Theory and Research. New York: Free Press.
16.
Hibbs, D. A. (1973) Mass Political Violence: A Cross-National Causal Analysis. New York: John Wiley.
17.
Hoole, F. W. and D. A. Zinnes [eds.] (1976) Quantitative International Politics: An Appraisal. New York: Praeger.
18.
Huckfeldt, R. R. , C. W. Kohfeld, and T. W. Likens (1982) Dynamic Modeling: An Introduction. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
19.
Huntington, S. P. (1968) Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, Connecticut: Yale Univ. Press.
20.
Judge, G. G. , E. Griffiths, R. C. Hill, and T. C. Lee (1980) The Theory and Practice of Econometrics. New York: John Wiley.
21.
Keohane, R. O. and J. S. Nye (1977) Power and Interdependence: World Politics in Transition. Boston: Little, Brown.
22.
Kmenta, J. (1971) Elements of Econometrics. New York: Macmillan.
23.
Kramer, G. H. (1983) “The ecological fallacy revisited: aggregate versus individual-level findings on economics and elections, and sociotropic voting.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.77 (1): 92-111.
24.
Lakatos, I. (1970) “Falsification and the methodology of scientific research programmes,” pp. 91-195 in I. Lakatos and A. Musgrave (eds.) Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press.
25.
Lyons, W. (1977) “Per capita index construction: a defense.”Amer. J. of Pol. Sci.21 (1): 177-182.
26.
McCleary, R. and R. A. Hay, Jr. (1980) Applied Time Series Analysis for the Social Sciences. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
27.
Modelski, G. (1978) “The long cycle of global politics and the nation-state.”Comparative Studies in Society and History20 (April): 214-235.
28.
Most, B. A. and H. Starr (1980) “Diffusion, reinforcement, geopolitics, and the spread of war.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.74 (4): 932-946.
29.
Naylor, T. H. [ed.] (1971) Computer Simulation Experiments with Models of Economic Systems. New York: John Wiley.
30.
Pierce, D. (1977) “Relationships—and lack thereof—between economic time series, with special reference to money and interest rates.”J. of the Amer. Statistical Assn.72: 11-22.
31.
Pindyck, R. S. and D. L. Rubinfeld (1981) Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts (2nd ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.
32.
Rosenau, J. N. (1966) “Pre-theories and theories of foreign policy,” pp. 27-92 in R. B. Farrell (ed.) Approaches to Comparative and International Politics. Evanston, IL: Northwestern Univ. Press.
33.
Russett, B. (1988) “Economic decline, electoral pressure, and the initiation of interstate conflict,” in C. Gochman and A. N. Sabrosky (eds.) The Prisoners of War. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.
34.
Schuessler, K. (1973) “Ratio variables and path models,” pp. 201-228 in A. S. Goldberger and O. D. Duncan (eds.) Structural Equation Models in the Social Sciences. New York: Seminar Press.
35.
Singer, J. D. (1981) “Accounting for international war: the state of the discipline.”J. of Peace Science18 (1): 1-18.
36.
Siverson, R. M. and M. P. Sullivan (1983) “The distribution of power and the onset of war.”J. of Conflict Resolution27 (3): 473-494.
37.
Small, M. and J. D. Singer (1982) Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
38.
Snyder, R. C. , H. W. Bruck, and B. Sapin (eds.) (1962) Foreign Policy Decision-Making: An Approach to the Study of International Politics. New York: Free Press.
39.
Starr, H. (1978) “`Opportunity' and `willingness' as ordering concepts in the study of war.”Int. Interactions4 (4): 363-387.
40.
Stein, A. A. and B. M. Russett (1980) “Evaluating war: outcomes and consequences,” pp. 399-422 in T. R. Gurr (ed.) Handbook of Political Conflict: Theory and Research. New York: Free Press.
41.
Stohl, M. (1980) “The nexus of civil and international conflict,” pp. 297-330 in T. R. Gurr (ed.) Handbook of Political Conflict. New York: Free Press.
42.
Thompson, W. R. (1983a) “Uneven economic growth, systemic challenges, and global wars.”Int. Studies Q.27 (3): 341-355.
43.
Thompson, W. R. (1983b) “World wars, global wars, and the Cool Hand Luke syndrome: a reply to Chase-Dunn and Sokolovsky.”Int. Studies Q.27 (3): 369-374.
44.
Uslander, E. M. (1976) “The pitfalls of per capita.”Amer. J. of Pol. Sci.20 (1): 125-133.
45.
Wallerstein, I. (1980) The Modern World System II: Mercantilism and the Consolidation of the European World Economy, 1600-1750. New York: Academic.
46.
Ward, M. D. and U. Widmaier (1982) “The domestic-international conflict nexus: new evidence and old hypotheses.”Int. Interactions9 (1): 75-101.
47.
Wilkenfeld, J. and D. A. Zinnes (1973) “A linkage model of domestic conflict behavior,” pp. 325-356 in J. Wilkenfeld (ed.) Conflict Behavior and Linkage Politics. New York: David McKay.
48.
Zimmermann, E. (1980) “Macro-comparative research on political protest,” pp. 167-237 in T. R. Gurr (ed.) Handbook of Political Conflict: Theory and Research. New York: Free Press.
49.
Zinnes, D. A. (1980a) “Three puzzles in search of a researcher: presidential address.”Int. Studies Q.24 (3): 315-342.
50.
Zinnes, D. A. (1980b) “Why war? Evidence on the outbreak of international conflict,” pp. 331-360 in T. R. Gurr (ed.) Handbook of Political Conflict: Theory and Research,. New York: Free Press.
51.
Zinnes, D. A. and J. Wilkenfeld (1971) “An analysis of foreign conflict behavior of nations,” pp. 167-213 in W. F. Hanrieder (ed.) Comparative Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays. New York: David McKay.