Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's The War Trap (1981) is an ambitious attempt at putting forward a rational choice theory of war initiation. The book is subjected to a critical reading and found wanting on three criteria: concepts, measures, and empirical analysis.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Bueno de Mesquita, B. (1981) The War Trap. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
2.
Campbell, D. T. and D. W. Fiske (1959) “Convergent and discriminant validation by the multitrait-multimethod matrix.”Psychological Bull.56, 2: 81-105.
3.
Carr, E. H. (1946) The Twenty Years' Crisis. London: Macmillan.
4.
Duvall, R. (1976) “An appraisal of the methodology and statistical procedures of the correlates of war project,” pp. 67-98 in F. W. Hoole and D. A. Zinnes, (eds.) Quantitative International Politics: An Appraisal. New York: Praeger.
5.
Gochman, C. S. (1975) “Status, conflict and war.” Ph.D. dissertation, University of Michigan.
6.
Gould, S. J. (1981) The Mismeasure of Man. New York: Norton.
7.
Heikal, M. (1975) The Road to Ramadan. New York: Times Books.
8.
Luce, R. D. and H. Raiffa (1957) Games and Decisions. New York: John Wiley.
9.
Moe, T. (1979) “On the scientific status of rational models.”Amer. J. of Pol. Sci.23, 1: 215-243.
10.
Przeworski, A. and H. Teune (1970) The Logic of Comparative Social Inquiry. New York: John Wiley.
11.
Rosenberg, A. (1976) Microeconomic Laws. Pittsburgh: Univ. of Pittsburgh Press.
12.
Simon, H. (1957) “A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice.” pp. 241-260 in H. A. Simon (ed.) Models of Man: Social and Rational. New York: John Wiley.
13.
Singer, J. D. and M. Small (1972). The Wages of War, 1816-1965. New York: John Wiley.
14.
Starr, H. and B. A. Most (1978) “A return journey: Richardson, `frontiers' and wars in the 1946-1965 era.”J. of Conflict Resolution22, 3: 441-467.
15.
Steinbruner, J. D. (1974) The Cybernetic Theory of Decision. Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press.
16.
Sylvan, D. J. and S. J. Majeski (1983) “A formalization of decision and measurement heuristics for war initiation.” Presented to the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago.
17.
von Neumann, J. and O. Morgenstern (1944) Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press.
18.
Wakeman, F., Jr. (1975) The Fall of Imperial China. New York: Free Press.
19.
Wohlstetter, R. (1962) Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision. Stanford: Stanford Univ. Press.