This study involves a longitudinal investigation of the short-term and long-term effects of the Syrian military intervention (June 1976) on Lebanese domestic conflict. The inquiry also includes an analysis of the strategic timing of the intervention in Lebanon. Variables such as the level of Lebanese domestic conflict, social polarization, and linkages of internal-external cooperation are examined as possible precipitating factors. The study reveals that the Syrian intervention increased the short-term conflict (June-October 1976) in Lebanon, but ultimately it was responsible for an overall decline in civil strife throughout most of the country (with the exception of southern Lebanon). Moreover, the Syrian military action did not occur in the midst of extreme Lebanese domestic conflict and social polarization. Rather, the Syrian action occurred when civil strife, social polarization, and Lebanese-Syrian cooperation were declining. In the final analysis, the findings reflect the necessity for better specification of the causal linkages between civil war and foreign military intervention.
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