This article investigates the possibility of a contagion effect in each of fourteen Latin American republics from 1949 through 1963. Using a data set drawn from the Hispanic American Report, riot frequencies are compared with the Poisson and contagious Poisson distributions. The authors find evidence of contagion in six countries, and suggest that contagion as a concept encompasses a variety of behavioral processes. In addition, the authors attempt to reconcile contagion studies with more traditional studies of political violence.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Banks, A. (1971) Cross-Polity Time-Series Data. Cambridge: MIT Press.
2.
Bwy, D. ( 1968) "Political instability in Latin America: the cross-cultural test of a cultural model." Latin Amer. Research Rev.3: 17-66.
3.
Coleman, J.S. (1964) Mathematical Sociology. New York: Macmillan.
Eckstein, H. (1962) Internal War: The Problem of Anticipation. Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution .
6.
Feagin, J. and H. Hahn (1973) Ghetto Revolts. New York: Macmillan.
7.
Feierabend, I.K. and R.L. Feierabend (1966) "Aggressive behaviors within polities, 1948-1962: a cross-national study." J. of Conflict Resolution10: 249-271.
8.
Fogelson, R. (1971) Violence as Protest. Garden City, NY: Doubleday.
9.
Gurr, T.R. (1970) Why Men Rebel. Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press.
10.
——— (1969) Cross-National Studies of Civil Violence. Washington, DC: Center for Research in Social Systems .
11.
Jiobu, R.M. (1971) "City characteristics, differential stratification, and the occurrence of interracial violence." Social Sci. Q.52: 508-520.
12.
Li, R. and W. Thompson (1975) "The 'coup contagion' hypothesis." J. of Conflict Resolution19: 63-83.
13.
Lieske, J. (1978) "The conditions of racial violence in American cities." Am. Pol. Sci. Rev.72: 1324-1340.
14.
Marx, G. (1972) "Issueless riots," in J. F. Short, Jr. and M. E. Wolfgang (eds.) Collective Violence. Chicago: AVC.
15.
Mazur, A. (1972) "Comment: the causes of black riots." Am. Soc. Rev.37: 490-493.
16.
Midlarsky, M. (1978) "Analyzing diffusion and contagion effects." Am. Pol. Sci. Rev.72: 996-1008.
17.
——— (1970) "Mathematical models and a theory of instability ." Int. Studies Q.14: 60-84.
18.
——— and R. Tanter (1967) "Toward a theory of political instability in Latin America." J. of Peace Research3: 209-227.
19.
Morgan, W.R. and T.N. Clark (1973) "The causes of racial disorders: a grievance-level explanation." Am. Soc. Rev.38: 611-624.
20.
Nieburg, H.L. (1969) Political Violence: The Behavioral Process. New York: St. Martins.
21.
Polsby, N. and A. Wildarsky (1968) Presidential Elections. New York: Scribner.
22.
Rummell, R.J. (1963) "Dimensions of conflict behavior within and between nations." General Systems Yearbook, 8.
23.
Salert, B. (1976) Revolutions and Revolutionaries: Four Theories . New York: Elsevier North-Holland .
24.
Schattschneider, E.E. (1960) The Semi-Sovereign People. New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
25.
Shibutani, T. (1955) "Reference groups as perspectives." Amer. J. of Psychology60: 562-569.
26.
Siverson, R. and G. Duncan (1975) "Stochastic models of the distribution of dyadic warfare in time." Presented at ISA, Washington, DC.
27.
Spilerman, S. (1972) "Comment: strategic considerations in analyzing the distribution of racial disturbances." Am. Soc. Rev.37: 493-499.
28.
——— (1971) "The causes of racial disturbances: tests of an explanation." Am. Soc. Rev.36: 427-442.
29.
——— (1970) "The causes of racial disturbances: a comparison of alternative explanations." Am. Soc. Rev.34: 627-649.
30.
Smelser, N. (1962) Theory of Collective Behavior. New York: Macmillan.
31.
Tarde, G. (1903) The Laws of Imitation. New York : Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
32.
West, G. (1973) "The dimensions of political violence in Latin America, 1949-1964: an empirical study." Ph.D. dissertation, University of Pennsylvania.
