This article is an application to Northern Ireland of theoretical ideas about ethnic politics. Four sets of ideas are relevant: (1) the theory developed by Rabushka and Shepsle (1972); (2) "pluralist" theory, developed by a number of scholars; (3) "consociational democracy," developed by Lijphart (1977a, 1975a, 1969); and (4) "mobilization" theory, developed by Wolfinger (1965) and modified by Peleg and Peleg (1977). It is found that, on the whole, the Rabushka-Shepsle theory is the best of the four. Based on this analysis, it is concluded that the prospects for a political solution to the Northern Irish conflict in the foreseeable future are, at best, slim. While this conclusion could be drawn from unsystematic observation, we engage in theoretically informed discussion which places it on a much firmer logical foundation.
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