This study analyzes foreign policy behavior in the realm of international energy politics. The model we developed states that conflict and cooperation between importers and exporters of oil are related to the development of oil issues by the host countries which are undergoing the process of oil industrialization. Three issue sets are identified and each is related to the foreign policy behavior of the exporters directed toward the western oil importers. The issue sets include (1) development of the emergent oil industries, (2) distribution of the profits therefrom, and (3) the control and ownership of the oil industries. The model depicting aspects of the evolution of oil issues is operationalized utilizing difference equations, and correspondence with event/interaction data is tested for two cases: Iran and Saudi Arabia. Between 53% and 98% of the variance in measured cooperative and conflictual petroleum behavior is explained.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Allison, G. T. (1971) Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis Boston Little, Brown
2.
--- and M. H. Halperin (1972) "Bureaucratic politics: a paradigm and some policy implications."World Politics24: 40-80.
3.
Azar, E. E. (1970) "Analysis of international events."Peace Research Reviews, Vol. 4. Oakville, Ontario: Canadian Peace Research Institute.
4.
——— and T. Havener (1976) "Discontinuities in the symbolic environment: a problem in scaling."Int. Interactions2: 231-246.
5.
Baumgartner, T. and T. R. Burns (1975) "The structuring of international economic relations."Int. Studies Q.19: 126-159.
6.
Brams, S. J. (1966) "Transaction flows in the international system."Amer. Political Science Rev.60: 880-898.
7.
Choucri, N. and R. C. North (1975) Nations in Conflict: National Growth and International ViolenceSan Francisco: Freeman.
8.
Ezzati, A. (1971) "A computer simulation model for evaluating the dependency and bargaining power of the oil producing countries versus the international oil companies : an econometric approach." Ph.D. dissertation. Department of Economics, Indiana University.
9.
Galtung, J. (1968) "Entropy and the general theory of peace," pp. 3-57 in Proceedings of the International Peace Research Association, Second Conference (Vol. I). Assen: Van Gorcum.
10.
——— ( 1966a) "Rank and social integration," pp. 145-198 in J. Berger et al. (eds.) Sociological Theories in Progress.Boston: Houghton-Mifflin.
11.
——— (1966b) "International relations and international conflict: a sociological approach."Transactions: Sixth Congress of Sociology1: 121-161.
12.
——— (1964) "A structural theory of aggression."J. of Peace Research2: 15-38.
13.
Gillespie, J. V., D. A. Zinnes , P. A. Schrodt, G. S. Tahim, and R. M. Rubison (1977) "An optimal control model of arms races."Amer. Political Science Rev.71: 226-244.
14.
Haas, M. (1966) "Dynamics of international systems and subsystems."Honolulu: University of Hawaii. (mimeo)
15.
Hermann, M. G. with T. Milburn (1977) A Psychological Examination of Political Leaders. New York: Free Press.
16.
Holsti, O. (1962) "The belief system and national images."J. of Conflict Resolution6: 244-252.
17.
Kaplan, M. A. (1957) System and Process in International PoliticsNew York: John Wiley.
18.
Kelman, H. C. (1965) International Behavior: A Social-Psychological AnalysisNew York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
19.
Kindleberger, C. P. (1968) International EconomicsHomewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin.
20.
Knorr, K. (1975) The Power of NationsNew York: Basic Books.
21.
March, J. G., H. A. Simon , with H. Guetzkow ( 1958 ) OrganizationsNew York: John Wiley.
22.
Moran, T. H. (1974) Multinational Corporations and the Politics of Dependence: Copper in ChilePrinceton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press.
23.
Mikesell, R. F. (1971) "Conflict in foreign investor-host country relations: a preliminary analysis," pp. 29-55 in R. F. Mikesell et al., Foreign Investment in the Petroleum and Mineral Industries. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press for Resources for the Future, Inc.
24.
Neustadt, R. E. (1970) Alliance PoliticsNew York: Columbia Univ. Press.
25.
Park, T. W. (1977) "U.S.A. and Japan in global oil politics: a comparison of their interactions with petroleum exporting nations," pp. 159-185 in J. Chay (ed.) The Problems and Prospects of American-East Asian Relations.Boulder, CO : Westview Press.
26.
——— (1972) "The role of distance in international relations: a new look at the social field theory."Behavioral Science17: 337-348.
27.
——— F. Abolfathi, and M. Ward (1976) "Resource nationalism in the foreign policy behavior of oil exporting nations (1947-1974)."Int. Interactions2: 247-262.
28.
Phillips, W. R. (1969) "Dynamic patterns of international conflict," Dimensionality of Nations Project Research Report No. 33Honolulu: University of Hawaii.
29.
Rosecrance, R. N. (1963) Action and Reaction in World Politics: International Systems in PerspectiveBoston: Little, Brown.
30.
Rosenau, J. N. (1966) "Pre-theories and theories of foreign policy," pp, 27-92 in R. B. Farrell (ed.) Approaches to Comparative and International Politics.Evanston, IL: Northwestern Univ. Press.
31.
Rummel, R. J. (1971) "A status-field theory of international relations," Dimensionality of Nations Project Research Report No. 50. Honolulu: Univ. of Hawaii Press.
32.
Savage, I. R. and K. W. Deutsch (1960) "A statistical model of the gross analysis of transaction flows."Econometrica28: 551-572.
33.
Singer, J. D. (1961) "The level of analysis problem in international relations."World Politics14: 77-91.
34.
Snyder, R. C., H. W. Bruck , and B. Sapin (1962 ) Foreign Policy Decision-Making: An Approach to the Study of International PoliticsNew York: Free Press.
35.
Vincent, J.E., R. Baker, S. Gagnon, K. Hamm, and S. Reilly (1973) "Empirical tests of attribute, social field, and status field theories on international relations data."Int. Studies Q.17: 405-444.
36.
Vocke, W. C. (1976) American Foreign Policy: An Analytical ApproachNew York: Free Press.
