Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Abstract

Despite the significance of Great Power summitry to the maintenance and evolution of world politics and order, little attention has been allocated to this central phenomenon. One earlier exception (Galtung, 1964) did find that the volume or restrictedness of summitry (1941–1961) was associated with two key properties of the global system: polarization and predictability. However, a close examination of this study reveals serious problems vis-à-vis a shifting contextual focus and conceptual ambiguity in the handling of the independent variables. A reexamination with an explicitly geocentric perspective, a dependent variable limited to chief executive summitry (1948–1971), and a focus on the conflict intensity aspect of polarization (primarily measured by the annual rate of change in world military expenditures and secondarily by event interaction data) produced results which differ greatly with those found in the earlier study. Most of the original hypotheses receive little if any support. Additional analysis suggests the possibility of such intervening variables as time, the bloc interaction variant of polarization, capability concentration, and capability distribution fluidity. Further study, probably over a longer period of time, will be required to arrive at a more definite conclusion. Moreover, while Great Power summitry does appear to be influenced by certain attributes of the global system, the weakness of the discovered relationships suggests that summitry is a complex form of Great Power behavior that must be placed in a larger framework of global politics.

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

AZAR, E. E. and T. J. SLOAN (1975) Dimensions of Interaction: A Source Book for the Study of the Behavior of 31 Nations from 1948 Through 1973. Pittsburgh: Inter-national Studies Association.

BARNABY, F. and R. HUISKEN (1975) Arms Uncontrolled. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Univ. Press.

BUENO de MESQUITA, B. (1975) “Measuring systemic polarity.” J. of Conflict Resolution 19: 187–216.

CROZIER, M. , S. P. HUNTINGTON , and J. WATANUKI (1975) The Crisis of Democracy. New York: New York Univ. Press.

GALTUNG, J. (1964) “Summit meetings and international relations.” J. of Peace Research 1: 37–54.

GAMSON, W. A. and A. MODIGLIANI (1971) Untangling the Cold War. Boston: Little, Brown.

GOLDMANN, K. (1973) “East-West tension in Europe, 1946–1970: a conceptual analysis and a quantitative description.” World Politics 26: 106–125.

GOLDMANN, K. (1972) “Bipolarization and tension in international systems: a theoretical discussion.” Cooperation and Conflict 7: 37–63.

HART, J. (1974) “Symmetry and polarization in the European international system, 1870–1879: a methodological study.” J. of Peace Research 11: 229–244.

10.

HOLSTI, K. J. (1963) “The use of objective criteria for the measurement of international tension levels.” Background 7: 77–95.

11.

HOLSTI, O. R. , P. T. HOPMANN , and J. D. SULLIVAN (1973) Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances: Comparative Studies. New York: John Wiley.

12.

HOPKINS, R. F. and R. W. MANSBACH (1973) Sructure and Process in International Politics. New York: Harper & Row.

13.

JENKINS, J. B. (1975) “Uncertainty and uncertainty-reduction in the globalarena: toward an integrated approach to international politics, ” pp. 74–110 in W. O. Chittick (ed.) The Analysis of Foreign Policy Outputs. Columbus: Charles E. Merrill.

14.

LI, R. P. Y. and W. R. THOMPSON (1976) “The stochastic process of alliance formation behavior: a time series analysis.” Paper delivered at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, February.

15.

LUTERBACHER, U. (1974) Dimensions Historiques des Modelès Dynamiques de Conflict. Application aux Processus de Course aux Armements, 1900–1965. Geneva: IUHEI Publications.

16.

MIDLARSKY, M. I. (1975) On War: Political Violence on the International System. New York: Free Press.

17.

MODELSKI, G. (1974) World Power Concentrations: Typology, Data, Explanatory Framework. Morristown, NJ: General Learning Press.

18.

MODELSKI, G. (1972) Principles of World Politics. New York: Free Press.

19.

MODELSKI, G. and R. BENEDICT (1974) “Structural trends in world politics.” Comparative Politics 6: 287–298.

20.

NEWCOMBE, A. G. , N. S. NEWCOMBE , and G. D. LANDRUS (1974) “The development of an inter-nation tensionmeter.” International Interaction 1: 3–18.

21.

ROSECRANCE, R. N. (1966) “Bipolarity, multipolarity, and the future.” J. of Conflict Resolution 10: 314–327.

22.

SIPRI (1972) World Armaments and Disarmaments: SIPRI Yearbook 1972. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

23.

SIPRI (1969) World Armaments and Disarmaments: SIPRI Yearbook 1968/69. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

24.

SINGER, J. D. and M. SMALL (1968) “Alliance aggregation and the onset of war, 1815–1945, ” pp. 247–286 in J. D. Singer (ed.) Quantitative International Politics: Insights and Evidence. New York: Free Press.

25.

SINGER, J. D. , S. BREMER , and J. STUCKEY (1972) “Capability distribution, uncertainty, and major power war, 1820–1965, ” pp. 19–48 in B. M. Russett (ed.) Peace, War, and Numbers. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.

26.

SMOKER, P. (1966) “The arms race: a wave model.” Peace Research Society (International) Papers 4: 41–62.

27.

TEUNE, H. and S. SYNNESTVEDT (1965) “Measuring international alignment.” Orbis 9: 171–189.

28.

WALLACE, M. D. (1973) “Alliance polarization, cross-cutting, and international war, 1815–1964: a measurement procedure and some preliminary evidence.” J. of Conflict Resolution 17: 575–604.

29.

WALTZ, K. N. (1964) “The stability of a bipolar world.” Daedalus 93: 881–909.

Global Conflict Intensity and Great Power Summitry Behavior

Abstract

Get full access to this article

References