This paper reports a secondary analysis of a series of simulation runs which explored the effects of a broad array of variables on a nation's response to an imminent strategic attack from an unidentified source. Seven variables appeared as important in determining whether a nation would counterattack or delay retaliation when given such a warning. These variables include availability of a weapon survivability system, the economic and force capabilities of the nation, the decision makers' perceptions of the degree of tension in the world and of the degree of ambiguity in the situation, as well as the decision style and level of self-esteem of the decision makers. The results suggest that factors other than the invulnerability of weapon systems are involved in maintaining the stability of deterrence in an extreme crisis.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Abt, C.C. (1965) "Disarmament as a strategy," pp. 311-322 in D. B. Bobrow (ed.) Components of Defense Policy . Chicago: Rand McNally.
2.
Alsop, S. (1969) "Tis death, and death, and death indeed." Newsweek (May 26): 136.
3.
Block, J. and H. Thomas (1955) "Is satisfaction with self a measure of adjustment ?" J. of Abnormal and Social Psychology51: 254-259.
4.
Cohen, A.R. (1959) "Situational structure, self-esteem, and threat-oriented reactions to power," pp. 35-53 in D. Cartwright (ed.) Studies in Social Power. Ann Arbor: Univ. of Michigan Press.
5.
——— (1953) "The effects of situational structure and individual self-esteem on threat-oriented reactions to power." Ph.D. dissertation. University of Michigan.
6.
Crow, W.J. and J.R. Raser (1964) "Capacity to delay response: macro-analysis of experimental results from Inter-Nation Simulation runs." La Jolla, Calif.: Western Behavioral Sciences Institute (unpublished)
7.
Deutsch, K.W. (1968) The Analysis of International Relations. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.
8.
Deutsch, M. (1961) "Some considerations relevant to national policy ." J. of Social Issues17: 57-68.
9.
Driver, M.J. (1965) "A structural analysis of personality, stress, and aggression in the Inter-Nation Simulation." Lafayette, Ind.: Purdue University Institute for Research in the Behavioral, Economic and Management Sciences Paper 97.
10.
Friedell, M.F. (1968) "A laboratory experiment in retaliation." J. of Conflict Resolution12: 357-373.
11.
Gibb, C.A. (1969) "Leadership," pp. 205-282 in G. Lindzey and E. Aronson (eds.) Group Psychology and Phenomena of Interaction, Volume 4 of The Handbook of Social Psychology. Reading Mass.: Addison-Wesley.
12.
Goodman, L.A. and W.H. Kruskal (1954) "Measures of association for cross-classifications ." J. of the Amer. Statistical Assn.49: 732-764.
13.
Guetzkow, H., C.F. Alger, R.A. Brody, R.C. Noel, and R.C. Snyder (1963) Simulation in International Relations: Developments for Research and Teaching. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.
14.
Hermann, C.F. (1972) "Threat, time, and surprise: a simulation of international crisis," pp. 187-211 in C. F. Hermann (ed.) International Crises: Insights from Behavioral Research. New York: Free Press.
15.
--- ( 1969) Crises in Foreign Policy: A Simulation Analysis. Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill.
16.
——— (1967) "Validation problems in games and simulations with special reference to models of international politics." Behavioral Sci.12: 216-231.
17.
--- and M.G. Hermann (1967) "An attempt to simulate the outbreak of World War I." Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.61: 400-416.
18.
Hermann, M.G. (1966) "Testing a model of psychological stress." J. of Personality34: 381-396.
19.
Knorr, K. (1956) The War Potential of Nations. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton Univ. Press.
20.
Kogan, N. and M.A. Wallach (1967) "Risk taking as a function of the situation, the person, and the group," pp. 111-278 in Volume 3 of New Directions in Psychology. New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
21.
Leventhal, H. and S.I. Perloe (1962) "A relationship between self-esteem and persuasibility ." J. of Abnormal and Social Psychology64: 385-388.
22.
Mayer, L.S. and P.M. Burgess (1970) "Contrasting regression and correlation analysis with discriminant analysis for investigating nominal measures of behavior ." Columbus: Ohio State University Behavioral Sciences Laboratory Research Report 014.
23.
McNamara, R. (1968) "Meet the Press." Transcript of February 4 session. Washington, D.C.: Merkle Press .
24.
Pierson, G. and R. Gorsuch (1963) "Clinical validation and usefulness of the Altus in screening for intelligence." Psych. Reports13: 87-89.
Schelling, T.C. (1966) Arms and Influence. New Haven, Conn.: Yale Univ. Press.
27.
Schroder, H.M., M.J. Driver, and S. Streufert (1967) Human Information Processing. New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
28.
Silverman, I. (1964) "Differential effects of ego threat upon persuasibility for high and low self-esteem subjects." J. of Abnormal and Social Psychology69: 567-572.
29.
Singer, J.D. (1962) Deterrence, Arms Control, and Disarmament. Columbus: Ohio State Univ. Press.
30.
——— and M. Small (1968) "Alliance aggregation and the onset of war, 1815-1945 ," pp. 247-286 in J. D. Singer (ed.) Quantitative International Politics: Insights and Evidence. New York : Free Press.
31.
U.S. Senate (1969) Strategic and Foreign Policy Implications of ABM Systems. Hearings before the Subcommittee on International Organization and Disarmament Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Relations, Part I, Ninety-first Congress, First Session (March 21): 163-256.
32.
Yarmolinsky, A. (1971) The Military Establishment. New York: Harper.
33.
York, H. (1970) Race to Oblivion: A Participant's View of the Arms Race. New York: Simon & Schuster .
